Gerold Permoser am 01st August 2017 (c) iStock
Making sense of it all
I will be upfront about it: to me, the Taylor rule is still a helpful tool to assess the future monetary policy of the US central bank. However, it should not be used as blueprint without thinking it through. Instead, it should be seen as heuristic tool that helps structure one’s analysis.
Gerold Permoser am 27th July 2017 (c) iStock
Taylor Rule – precise formula, vague Inputs
Since 2008, the key-lending rates in the USA seem to have been significantly too low as measured by the Taylor rule. With some economists blaming Alan Greenspan’s loose monetary policy as partially responsible for the financial crisis of 2008, the question is whether we are in for a déjà-vu.
Gerold Permoser am 24th July 2017 (c) iStock
The US central bank has embarked on a cycle of interest rate hikes. The question is: by how much will the interest rates increase still, and at what point will it reach a level detrimental to the economy, where equities should be regrouped into asset classes less sensitive to the economic cycle?
Gerold Permoser am 12th July 2017 © iStock.com
It is almost impossible to speak with fund managers and not address the economy or monetary policy. Why is that so? This blog entry will try to answer the question on the basis of data from the US equity market from 1950 onwards.
Gerold Permoser am 04th July 2017 (c) iStock
The IFO business climate index calculated by the Munich-based IFO Institute is regarded as the most important German economic indicator. At 115.1, the value released for June last week was the highest since the launch in January 1991. It was also clearly above the value that had been expected by the financial analysts on average. The signs for substantial economic growth in Germany seem favourable.
Gerold Permoser am 28th June 2017 (c) iStock
Imagine a fairy that grants you three wishes. What would you wish for? The answer would be very easy for me. I would just like to know if the economy is caught up in a recession of has embarked on an expansionary phase a year from now. And whether the central bank will be pursuing an expansive or restrictive policy. If I got these two wishes granted, I would even forego the third one. Or, as a good fund manager, I might engage in risk management and save up for bad times. Growth and monetary policy are of significant relevance to the return of almost all asset classes.
Gerold Permoser am 27th April 2017 (c) iStock Photo
The rate of inflation has been quite substantial most recently, in comparison with the recent past and surprisingly so for many market participants. The harmonised consumer price index for the Eurozone was 2% higher on a year-on-year basis in February, which was also the highest value since 2013.
Gerold Permoser am 19th January 2017
In our annual press conference I have presented the most relevant topics for the investment year 2017. The most relevant ones are: stronger expected global growth, an increase in inflation and elevated event risks due to political reasons.
Gerold Permoser am 13th October 2016 © iStock.com
Erste Asset Management (EAM) has excluded companies that derive more than 30% of sales from coal mining from its mutual funds. In doing so, EAM is one of the first asset managers to have taken this step. “This was the next logical step for us, having excluded coal mining from our sustainable funds at the beginning of the year,” as Heinz Bednar, CEO of Erste Asset Management, explains.
Gerold Permoser am 26th November 2015 Ⓒ iStock.com
Erste Asset Management discloses the CO2 footprint of its equity funds for the first time. The CO2-intensity of all EAM equity mutual funds is at 70.6% as compared to the MSCI world index. Our three responsible equity flagship funds are even below 50% of the referential value.