Erste Asset Management

ARGENTINA CRIES (again) – Status Quo and Quo Vadis

ARGENTINA CRIES (again) – Status Quo and Quo Vadis
ARGENTINA CRIES (again) – Status Quo and Quo Vadis
Buenos Aires, Argentina, Debts
Share post:

Alberto Fernandez, the leftist challenger to the incumbent President Mauricio Macri, won the August primaries in a landslide.

Not a single pollster predicted such an outcome, so the result took the entire market wrong-footed. Mr. Fernandez is considered close to Kirchnerism, even so he keeps trying not to nourish that impression.

Anyway, his running mate is Christina Kirchner, president before Mr. Macri and responsible for the complete isolation of the country from international capital markets during her tenure.

Upcoming elections will scare off investors

Definitive elections will be held October 27, but for now it seems quite difficult for Mr. Macri to achieve a second mandate. This prospect is spooking investors, as they fear a return to an unorthodox and populist market approach and a confrontational stance towards the IMF under a Fernandez government.

Secondary Market bond prices collapsed to very distressed levels, discounting a default as being an almost sure thing.

Widespread market “Angst” is already making it almost impossible for the sovereign to refinance itself in the local capital market. This caused the authorities to impose a mandatory maturity re-profiling of local debt coming due.

No debt cut

Further, Mr. Macri announced his intention to seek a “friendly and voluntary re-profiling” of most of the country’s foreign debt, but no haircut envisaged.

Also, he pointed at the “need” to talk about the repayment structure of existing IMF loans, thereby potentially alienating the Fund, which has so far been very supportive of the Macri government. Mr. Fernandez has still not given information in regard to his stance towards these measures.

This is important, as a Fernandez government would have to execute them in case of an election win.

First round of capital controls

Over this weekend, the argentine authorities implemented the first round of capital controls in order to stop the drain on its FX reserves.

Foreign Debt servicing is so far not subject to those capital controls.

By now, most rating agencies have the country on some form of selective default. It is likely that such situation will lead to a credit event in the CDS market.

It is difficult to gauge whether current price levels accurately reflect a restructuring outcome, but ceteris paribus we are probably close to recovery values in our opinion.

 

Legal note:
Prognoses are no reliable indicator for future performance.

RESPOND TO THE ARTICLE

Legal disclaimer

This document is an advertisement. Unless indicated otherwise, source: Erste Asset Management GmbH. The language of communication of the sales offices is German and the languages of communication of the Management Company also include English.

The prospectus for UCITS funds (including any amendments) is prepared and published in accordance with the provisions of the InvFG 2011 as amended. Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG is prepared for the alternative investment funds (AIF) administered by Erste Asset Management GmbH pursuant to the provisions of the AIFMG in conjunction with the InvFG 2011.

The currently valid versions of the prospectus, the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG, and the key information document can be found on the website www.erste-am.com under “Mandatory publications” and can be obtained free of charge by interested investors at the offices of the Management Company and at the offices of the depositary bank. The exact date of the most recent publication of the prospectus, the languages in which the key information document is available, and any other locations where the documents can be obtained are indicated on the website www.erste-am.com. A summary of the investor rights is available in German and English on the website www.erste-am.com/investor-rights and can also be obtained from the Management Company.

The Management Company can decide to suspend the provisions it has taken for the sale of unit certificates in other countries in accordance with the regulatory requirements.

Note: You are about to purchase a product that may be difficult to understand. We recommend that you read the indicated fund documents before making an investment decision. In addition to the locations listed above, you can obtain these documents free of charge at the offices of the referring Sparkassen bank and the offices of Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG. You can also access these documents electronically at www.erste-am.com.

N.B.: The performance scenarios listed in the key information document are based on a calculation method that is specified in an EU regulation. The future market development cannot be accurately predicted. The depicted performance scenarios merely present potential earnings, but are based on the earnings in the recent past. The actual earnings may be lower than indicated. Our analyses and conclusions are general in nature and do not take into account the individual characteristics of our investors in terms of earnings, taxation, experience and knowledge, investment objective, financial position, capacity for loss, and risk tolerance.

Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of a fund. Investments in securities entail risks in addition to the opportunities presented here. The value of units and their earnings can rise and fall. Changes in exchange rates can also have a positive or negative effect on the value of an investment. For this reason, you may receive less than your originally invested amount when you redeem your units. Persons who are interested in purchasing units in investment funds are advised to read the current fund prospectus(es) and the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG, especially the risk notices they contain, before making an investment decision. If the fund currency is different than the investor’s home currency, changes in the relevant exchange rate can positively or negatively influence the value of the investment and the amount of the costs associated with the fund in the home currency.

We are not permitted to directly or indirectly offer, sell, transfer, or deliver this financial product to natural or legal persons whose place of residence or domicile is located in a country where this is legally prohibited. In this case, we may not provide any product information, either.

Please consult the corresponding information in the fund prospectus and the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG for restrictions on the sale of the fund to American or Russian citizens.

It is expressly noted that this communication does not provide any investment recommendations, but only expresses our current market assessment. Thus, this communication is not a substitute for investment advice, does not take into account the legal regulations aimed at promoting the independence of financial analyses, and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial analyses.

This document does not represent a sales activity of the Management Company and therefore may not be construed as an offer for the purchase or sale of financial or investment instruments.

Erste Asset Management GmbH is affiliated with the referring Sparkassen banks and Erste Bank.

Please also read the “Information about us and our securities services” published by your bank.

Subject to misprints and errors.