SpaceX goes public: What lies behind the biggest IPO in history

Reports are flooding in, the roadshow is underway – and on Thursday, 12 June 2026, Elon Musk’s space company SpaceX will be traded on the Nasdaq for the first time under the ticker $SPCX. A good moment to take a step back and take a sober look: What lies behind the valuation? Where are the opportunities – and where are the risks?

The bare figures

555.56 million shares at $135 each. That amounts to an issue volume of $75 billion – and a market capitalisation of around $1.77 trillion at the initial listing. By way of comparison: the previous record for an IPO was held by Saudi Aramco at $29 billion (2019). SpaceX is exceeding this figure by two and a half times.

Goldman Sachs is leading a consortium of 21 banks. Unusually for a company of this size: 30 per cent of the float is reserved for retail investors – three times as much as in typical mega-cap IPOs.

Three businesses within one group

SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. The S-1 reveals three very different segments:

1. Connectivity (Starlink)

The core business and the actual driver of valuation. Starlink currently operates more than 9,600 satellites in low Earth orbit and has 10.3 million subscribers in over 160 countries. In 2025, the segment generated revenue of US$11.4 billion (+50% year-on-year), with an operating profit of US$4.4 billion. In the first quarter of 2026 alone: $3.26 billion in revenue with $1.19 billion in operating profit. The business model – recurring subscription revenue, scalable infrastructure – is solid and well understood.

2. Space (Rockets & Launches)

The traditional core business centred on Falcon rockets is also profitable. SpaceX dominates the commercial launch market and has fundamentally transformed the cost of access to space with reusable launch vehicles. Starship – the next generation – is expected to begin operational flights in early 2027 at the earliest.

3. AI (xAI / Grok / X)

The new, loss-making segment. In February 2026, SpaceX acquired the AI company xAI along with the X platform. Integration was completed in May 2026 – Grok and X are now part of the SpaceXAI division. The result: an operating loss of around 2.5 billion US dollars per quarter in this segment alone. The group’s total loss in Q1 2026 amounted to $4.28 billion – against revenue of $4.69 billion.

Valuation logic – and its pitfalls

Anyone buying SpaceX shares is essentially buying Starlink – and placing a bet that the other segments will eventually become profitable or at least strategically valuable.
The valuation of $1.77 trillion is more than 90 times annual revenue. That is ambitious for a profitable growth company like Starlink, but for a consolidated group that is burning through billions at the bottom line. It represents a significant risk premium for investors.

Added to this is the governance structure: Elon Musk holds 42 per cent of the shares, but 85 per cent of the voting rights. Corporate decisions are effectively entirely in his hands – an aspect that institutional investors with ESG mandates will scrutinise particularly carefully.

The index effect – and why it is particularly significant this time

One aspect that is often underestimated in public debate: the mechanics of index inclusion. And here, SpaceX has influenced the rules of the game in its favour – or at least is benefiting from a rule change that seems tailor-made. In March 2026, Nasdaq fundamentally revised its inclusion criteria for the Nasdaq-100. The key term: “Fast Entry”. Newly listed companies whose market capitalisation ranks among the top 40 stocks in the index can be included after just 15 trading days – instead of after three months at the earliest, as was previously the case. For SpaceX, this means inclusion is expected in late June or early July 2026. This is even before the first lock-up expiry is in sight.

This has concrete consequences for the market. The Nasdaq-100 is tracked by more than 200 investment products with a total of over 600 billion US dollars in assets under management – including the well-known Invesco QQQ Trust with around 430 billion dollars. Upon inclusion in the index, all these funds are obliged to acquire SPCX shares – regardless of their own valuation opinion, and within a window of just five trading days. This generates significant structural, price-insensitive demand. FTSE Russell has also amended its rules and shortened the post-IPO window to just five days, meaning SpaceX would also qualify for inclusion in the Russell 1000 in September or December 2026.

However, there was a setback today, 5 June: S&P Dow Jones Indices has made it clear that it will not be changing its existing inclusion criteria for the S&P 500. Rapid inclusion in the world’s most closely watched index is therefore off the table for the time being – SpaceX would be eligible for the S&P 500 in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 at the earliest. For many global passive funds, SPCX therefore remains a stock to watch for the time being, rather than a must-buy.

What remains: The index effect is real and structurally significant – but it is not a blank cheque. Investors banking on buying pressure from index funds should understand that this pressure is temporary and says little about the fundamental value of the share.

What investors should keep an eye on

Opportunities:

• Starlink as a scalable infrastructure model with genuine growth figures
• First opportunity to invest directly in the commercial space sector
• Strategic positioning as an AI infrastructure player (orbital data centres, Starlink-as-Compute)
• Nasdaq 100 inclusion possible after just 15 trading days – structural buying pressure from index funds amounting to billions

Risks:

• High valuation despite negative consolidated earnings
• xAI integration significantly weighs on margins; synergies have yet to be proven
• Lock-up expiries (90–180 days): insider sales could put pressure on the share price
• Reliance on individuals: Musk simultaneously leads Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, X and Neuralink – any controversy has a direct impact on the share price
• Starship delays would directly affect revenue projections for Starlink V3
• S&P 500 inclusion not in sight for the time being – not a global “must-buy” for large passive funds

A note on our own behalf

For Erste Asset Management funds, this means in concrete terms: SpaceX is investable exclusively for products under Article 6 of the EU Disclosure Regulation – i.e. for funds without explicit sustainability objectives.

For funds with integrated ESG criteria (Article 8) or strict ESG requirements (Article 9), SpaceX is excluded as an investment due to its military ties.

With Starshield, SpaceX operates a dedicated satellite network for the US government and the Pentagon, which is used for intelligence missions, secure military communications and – as recently reported – to control kamikaze drones. Added to this are contracts worth billions with the US Space Force and the National Reconnaissance Office. Musk attempts to draw a line between the civilian Starlink and the military Starshield – in practice, however, this line is blurred.

This is not a moral judgement on the company, but a consequence of clearly defined investment criteria.

Context

The SpaceX IPO is no ordinary stock market flotation. It marks the first time a company that is literally building the infrastructure of the space age has gone public. This warrants interest – but not uncritical interest.

For portfolio managers, the question is not whether SpaceX is fascinating. The question is whether a valuation of nearly two trillion dollars already prices in realistic earnings growth over the coming years – or a vision of the future.

The answer, as is so often the case, lies in the S-1. Recommended reading: S-1 Registration Statement Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (original, 20 May 2026).

All filings onSEC EDGAR (including S-1/A Amendment dated 1 June).

 

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