Gerhard Winzer, Chief Economist at Erste Asset Management, provides an overview of recent economic developments and explains, among other things, what structural problems the euro is facing.
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Central Banks Attempt to Prevent Inflationary Spiral
Since the beginning of the year, the bond markets have been in a bear market. What are the implications for the economy? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes three models in relation to the development of inflation and their implications.
Increasing growth risks
Inflation, the war in Ukraine and monetary policy are driving the markets and stoking fears of an impending recession. Initial economic indicators also point to gloomy growth prospects.
Way Out Recession?
The prices of risk asset classes are subject to downward pressure. Is an inflation spiral likely to occur? Will the increase in key interest rates trigger a recession?
High inflation rates increase downside risks
Inflation rates continue to rise, prompting central banks to accelerate rate hikes. Which models for the future inflation development are conceivable? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Winzer analyzes which scenarios are imaginable in the future.
Growth fears
Inflation has been the underlying factor in economy for some time. A recovery of GDP on a pre-pandemic level should be reached soon. The probability of a growth phase has increased. What further developments are expected?
Hawkish and bearish
Expectations of key interest rate hikes have been the most important driving factor for the capital markets since the beginning of the year. The Federal Reserve Chairman reiterated the Fed’s hawkish and bearish stance. How will the financial environment change in the second half of the year?
Tightening of financial condition
The global economy has been confronted with two stagflationary events in the last two years: the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. What factors are influencing the uncertainty in the markets? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Winzer analyzes which scenarios are conceivable in the future.
The End of Loose Monetary Policy
The US Federal Reserve is turning the interest rate screw hard and accelerating the exit from its ultra-expansive monetary policy. Will it get a grip on high inflation? And how will the economy cope with higher interest rates?
The hour of the hawks
In the US, interest rate hikes to a level of 3% by the end of 2023 have become likely. When will the European Central Bank follow? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyses the interest rate policies of the central banks.