Growth is weak, and the downside risks are elevated. However, in a pre-emptive move, the market has already priced in the materialisation of some of the risks. The current development would not immediately suggest it. A short-term phase of recovery on the equity markets would fit this picture. The past days and weeks have not […]
The losses on the stock exchanges and in other risky asset classes unsettle investors. The additional expansive signals sent by the central bank support markets, albeit only by a minor degree. From an economic perspective there are no convincing signs for a trend reversal. The current correction is due to permanently low growth and to […]
The price declines on the equity markets at the beginning of the year suggest a decline in investor confidence. Is this justified? Please find a few hypotheses for 2016 in the following:
On 3 December the European Central Bank loosened its monetary policy further. The reaction from the markets was that of disappointment, as assets had had more extensive measures priced in.
The US central bank Fed hinted at an increase of the Fed funds rate in December at its meeting on 28 October. A bias towards such an increase is referred to as tightening bias. If the economic data permit it, the Fed will increase the Fed funds rate from practically zero percent. The extent and […]
The arguments supporting a further rise in share prices have become stronger. The important central banks have been sending expansive signals in recent weeks, i.e. signals that support the economy and the markets. The latest measure was the statement made by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, at the ECB press […]
Are we now on the other side of the recent price decline in the risky asset classes? Global equities, bonds with default risk, and emerging markets have been recording significant gains. Has the fundamental situation improved, or had the assets excessively negative events priced in?
The beginning of Q4 is the time for an outlook on the coming year. At first we want to establish the determining factors for the economic activity and the markets. On this basis, we will introduce three scenarios.
The current refugee crisis is immense. Estimates expect more than a million people to apply for asylum this year in the European Union; i.e. we are talking about 0.2% in terms of total population. This would suggest that the immigration can be handled if all the countries cooperate.
Interest rate decision by the Fed Tomorrow, Thursday 17 September 2015, the federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US central bank Fed will be taking an important decision. Is the Fed funds rate to be raised or not? The financial markets have accorded this decision a particularly important role. After all, the rate hike […]
