The US central bank Fed increased the Fed funds rate last Wednesday. The risky asset markets reacted to the move with an increase. At the same time, the US dollar depreciated. How can that be explained?
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Fragile bull market
It is as difficult to remain invested in a bull market as it is to leave a bear market. After all, investors are risk-averse. Taking into account the four most important categories for the assessment of the attractiveness of asset classes – valuation, liquidity, positioning, and growth – one would conclude that the most important driving factor for the markets builds on the last one.
Higher growth vs. increased political uncertainty
The first weeks of the new year have already picked up from where the trends that started in 2016 and the hypotheses for 2017 left off: higher growth, normalisation of inflation, increased uncertainty with regard to the effects of Trumponomics, and a gradual end of the loose monetary policy.
Macro: 10 theses for 2017
What are the topics that will be relevant this year? In commemoration of the fifth centenary of Martin Luther posting his 95 propositions, we, too, want to suggest ten theses for 2017.
US central bank confirms trend reversal
We have seen a number of trend reversals this year, one of them being the end of the negative growth surprises. The forecast of economic growth and inflation are currently not subject to downwards revisions any longer.
Italy – the third domino
On Sunday 4 December Italy will be holding a referendum on an amendment to the constitution. This is relevant particularly because in case of a rejection, the political uncertainty would increase.
Trumponomics
The market participants are still focused on the implications of Donald Trump’s victory at the US presidential elections. In simple terms, “Trumponomics” are a combination of expansive fiscal policies and restrictive trade policy. An increased budget deficit is supposed to support economic growth, while the curbing of free trade aims at job protection.
The impact of Donald Trump’s election victory
After a long campaign, the results of the US presidential election are in: Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. In addition, the Republican Party has retained its majority in Congress. What are the repercussions for the global economy and the financial markets?
Clinton versus Trump
The rising relevance of the anti-establishment movement across many parts of the world has instilled a particular sense of urgency and importance into the upcoming presidential elections in the USA on 8 November.
High uncertainty, low volatility
Uncertainty is high, while volatility is low. How to resolve the contradiction?