Erste Asset Management Investment Team
The economic paradigm – the leitmotif, as it were – has only changed twice in the past 200 years: in the 1930s from liberalism to Keynesianism, and in the 1970s to monetarism. Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, we have noticed a new economic upheaval, which has now crystallised into a new paradigm as a consequence of the measures taken to fight the corona pandemic: without a name yet, this paradigm is characterised by cheap money and a very active role of the State.
The interest rates seem to have been going one way for years – down. With the exception of a few corrections, the taboo has been broken for many years that bond yields should have to be positive all the time.
At the beginning of September, the FED announced a significant change in their policy: They officially announced the implementation of “average inflation targeting”. This allows to have a higher inflation rate for a period of time instead of being closely held to the target inflation rate of 2%.
Why did the FED announce this shift in its policy? Is inflation returning in the agenda? In this article, we intend to show the policy requirements for high(er) inflation.
When the economy is well, people are well. But just how well is the economy going to be in the coming years? Some economists believe the idea that we will be entering a secular stagnation – or have already entered it – to be a realistic scenario. What does that mean?
For those brave enough to form long-term opinions about the world economy, one of the most important factors is China’s future role. Who are the key players and are we facing a new cold war soon?
There is no question that new technologies will play a crucial role in everyday life. Understanding the trend and taking a reasonable action from investment point of view requires to have specific knowledge and setup specific metrics.
You need a mixture of history, economics and politics to hear through the everyday noise and recognize the big trends of the future. In our new series, Erste AM’s investment team identifies those factors that will determine the next 10 years.