All articles on the topic “Markets”
Economic Growth: Is the glass a third full or two thirds empty?
Weak growth Real global economic growth was weak in Q1. Estimates put economic growth at an annualised 1.5% (q/q). Thus the long-term trend of downward revisions is intact, which keeps the fears of global economy possibly heading for persistent stagnation alive.
Changes in the market regime
The big trends of the past weeks such as the appreciation of the US dollar, the weakening oil price, falling yields, and the outperformance of Eurozone equities have reversed in the past days and weeks, in some cases drastically so. What is behind all of this? When both demand (i.e. economic growth) and supply (i.e. […]
Market and fundamentals
Weak growth Real global economic growth was surprisingly weak in Q1. The preliminary estimate for the annualised growth rate of Q4 2014 to Q1 2015 is only 1.5%. This is mainly due to disappointingly weak growth of the GDP in the USA (+0.2%), in China (+5.3%), in the UK (+1.2%), and in Japan (+1.5%; estimate). […]
Strong Dollar and Turkey
In Turkey, the impact of the currency fluctuations are being discussed and even an ordinary Turk on the street knows what it means for the currency to depreciate. For example, during a cab ride, you may have a very deep economic discussion with the taxi driver about the dollar and the Turkish lira. This is […]
China – the biggest economy in the world
The new normal The importance of China for the global economic and financial system continues to grow at a rapid pace. Last year the country set a new milestone by becoming the world’s biggest economy. The total value of goods and services produced in a year exceeds that of the United States. Thus, at 30% […]
Macro data: Dynamics down
The dynamics of the economy and the markets have declined. Global economic growth is down on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the two most important trends of the past months (appreciation of the US dollar and falling oil price) have come to a halt, inflation is not falling anymore, and the US Fed has put a damper […]
The investment segment of emerging markets corporate bonds has matured
For many institutional investors corporate bonds from emerging markets issuers have become an important instrument of portfolio diversification. Our fund management team estimates that a portfolio made up of 70% investment grade bonds and 30% high-yield bonds can yield an average 5% in the medium term. This sort of yield can hardly be achieved with […]
The confrontation of the doves
The most important central bank in the world, i.e. the US Fed, made an announcement yesterday that attracted a large deal of attention from investors. The bank withdrew its assurance to remain “patient” before the Fed funds rate would be increased. This paved the way for a possible abandonment of the zero interest rate policy, […]
Two canaries in the coalmine
The US dollar has appreciated significantly vis-à-vis the euro in the past months. For this trend to continue, at least two developments would have to be in place. Firstly, the US Fed would have to abandon its zero interest rate policy; and secondly, the ECB would have to remain on its path of negative interest […]
Boon and bane
The driving topics on the financial markets are the stabilisation of the oil price, mixed economic indicators globally vs. positive economic indicators for the Eurozone, the temporary decline in escalation risk, and the expansive central bank policies.