Articles about “Inflation”
Weekly Winzer: Powell opens door to interest rate cut
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled a possible interest rate cut in September in Jackson Hole. The markets reacted immediately with price gains – but there is more to his words than pure monetary policy. The Fed is caught between inflation risks, a weaker labour market and growing political pressure.
Rising inflation expectations and yields: a risk for market sentiment?
Two developments on the stock markets have stood out since the beginning of the year: rising inflation expectations and significant increases in government bond yields. Could market sentiment soon turn frosty in view of this?
Interest rate cuts at the door
After the rapid and sharp interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023, the pendulum is now swinging in the opposite direction. After the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve will cut key interest rates for the first time this Wednesday, thus initiating a new cycle of interest rate cuts. What does all this mean for the economy and what conclusions can be drawn from it for investments?
Shift in risks
Both the markets and central banks are pointing to a shift in economic risks from inflation towards growth. The focus is currently on the US labor market.
Economic outlook: soft landing with risks attached
On the stock markets, the focus is shifting back to the downside risks. Nevertheless, there are still hopes that inflation will gradually fall and that there will be no recession. But how realistic are the hopes for this “soft landing” of the economy and how can investors position themselves in the current environment?
Soft landing beats political uncertainty
With the surprising fall in inflation in the US, the scenario of a “soft landing” has become more likely. Meanwhile, the shocking attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the weekend will likely have an impact on the current election campaign.
Market commentary: What will the second half of 2024 bring?
The second half of 2024 has already kicked off on the financial markets – but what can investors expect from it? After expectations of interest rate cuts in the US were pushed back further and further in the first half of the year, the scope for the US Federal Reserve could increase again in the remainder of the year. The main focus is likely to be on upcoming political decisions – which could also lead to greater fluctuations.
ECB interest rate policy: First rate cut, and then?
The European Central Bank is likely to cut its key interest rate tomorrow for the first time since the interest rate turnaround in 2022. But what comes next? Will the first cut herald a series of interest rate cuts or will the monetary guardians remain cautious? Chief economist Gerhard Winzer takes a look at the ECB’s possible future interest rate policy.
Favorable indicators: Soft landing on approach?
More and more indicators are pointing to good global growth. Even regions and sectors that had recently weakened are likely to return to growth. The soft landing after the sharp rise in inflation and the turnaround in interest rates could succeed. The decline in inflation is pausing at the same time, as yesterday’s US inflation data shows.
Inflation, interest rates, markets: 10 topics for 2024
After the price rally at the end of last year, the markets started 2024 with price losses. The ongoing positive correlation between bonds and equities is striking. Both asset classes have fallen equally recently, which makes diversification in a portfolio more difficult. But the year has only just begun. We therefore take a look at 10 key topics for 2024 that could be helpful when putting together a portfolio.
Market outlook: What investors can expect in 2024
2023 brought many surprises – including positive ones, such as the unexpectedly good performance across all asset classes. What can investors expect in the new year and which topics could come into focus? Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management, provides an outlook.
Increasing optimism for a “soft” economic landing
While equities have recently risen, yields on the bond market have weakened. The markets are being supported by increasing hopes of a “soft” landing for the economy. What are the chances of this scenario?
More Optimistic Outlook for German Economy among Experts
Stock market professionals are less pessimistic about the prospects for the German economy in the next six months. This is shown by the current economic barometer of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW). The government also wants to get the economy moving again with additional relief measures.
Encouraging fall in inflation
Since the beginning of November the prices of both risky security classes such as equities and credit-safe government bonds have been on the rise. The market appears to be increasingly pricing in a so-called “soft” landing for the economy. The probability of this actually increased over the course of the year. However, the economic data published in recent weeks and months does not contradict the “hard” landing scenario.
Soft-landing optimism might be in for some disappointment
The financial environment has become slightly more relaxed since the beginning of November. This fact is manifesting itself on the market in the form of falling yields and rising share prices. This week, two indicators relating to the US economy in particular could provide clues as to the sustainability of this trend since the beginning of the month: retail sales and consumer prices.
Phillips curve: Is there a risk of structurally higher inflation?
Inflation rose sharply in 2021 due to several supply shocks. Although there is a clear downward trend. However, the supply shocks could also have a structural effect on inflation. A look at the Phillips curve model can shed light on this.
Parliamentary elections in Poland on Sunday – what comes afterwards?
Tension ahead of the parliamentary election in Poland next Sunday. Will there be a decision on the direction of politics and interest rate cuts?
How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?
In line with the surprisingly strong economic indicators in the US, government bond yields have risen significantly in recent months. This is putting pressure on the prices of many classes of securities and intensifying discussions about how restrictive interest rate policy really is. Could the higher level of yields make the central bank’s job easier in the form of further interest rate hikes?
Best of Charts: News from the inflation
Even though inflation has weakened recently, it remains an important topic for private individuals as well as for companies and the markets. What might happen next in terms of inflation and how long will the restrictive monetary policy stay with us? A look at some important financial charts will shed some light on this.
Inflation continues to fall: Do interest rate hikes now come to an end?
Inflation in the Eurozone is expected to fall further. According to initial estimates, the inflation rate fell more sharply than expected in August. With a view to the next ECB interest rate decision at the end of October, the question now arises: Do interest rate hikes now come to an end?
Conditional pause on interest rate hikes
The European Central Bank has raised the key interest rates probably for the last time in this interest rate cycle. But the rising oil price poses a risk that the ECB has only taken a pause.
Where is the German housing market heading?
Despite higher inflation and interest rates, demand for housing in Germany is expected to remain robust.
What are the lasting results of the central bank meeting in Jackson Hole?
At the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, summed up the uncertain environment as “navigating by the stars in a cloudy sky”. This relates, among other things, to the uncertainty about the level of the neutral interest rate, the lagged effect of key-lending rate hikes on economic growth and inflation, and the drivers of inflation.
Soft landing with risks
Currently, the most important indicators point to average global economic growth and falling inflation. The probability of an immediate recession has decreased significantly. But the risks in the medium term remain. Chief economist Gerhard Winzer explains which three scenarios are currently emerging in the blog post.
Best of Charts: Beach Edition
The stock markets are also usually a little quieter during the summer months. Many market participants take a break due to holidays and the general activity decreases. In any case, a look at some important charts indicates that no nasty surprises are to be expected during the holidays.
Immaculate disinflation: Is that possible?
Can price stability, i.e. inflation of 2%, be achieved without a recession? The further decline in inflation in the US in June has raised expectations for this favourable scenario. However, a look in the rear-view mirror calls for caution. In the past, a central bank-induced decline in inflation has often been accompanied by a recession.
Interest rate policy based on the motto “higher and longer”
The global economy is proving to be increasingly robust against a number of headwinds. Due to the uncomfortably high level of inflation, the central banks are likely to stick to their tight interest rate policy for longer than expected.
Strong first half of the year: What`s next for the stock markets?
The stock markets look back on a strong first half of the year. In addition to the already familiar factors of inflation and key interest rates, the trend topic of artificial intelligence (AI) came into focus. In this interview, fund manager Tamás Menyhárt looks back on the past six months and tells us what has to happen for 2023 to end as happily as the first half of the year did.
Recession, inflation, key interest rates: Economic outlook for the second half of the year
The feared recession has so far failed to materialise and inflation is also falling. Nevertheless, the risks remain on the downside. What could be in store for the markets in the second half of the year?
Interest rate decisions in focus: what will the central banks do?
This week, the markets are eagerly awaiting the upcoming interest rate decisions. The Fed in the USA will make the first move today, Wednesday. For the first time in the current cycle, no increase in the key interest rate is expected. For tomorrow’s interest rate decision by the ECB, on the other hand, the market expects a further rate hike of 25 basis points.
Inflation in Europe likely to have peaked
Inflation data in Europe recently showed a surprisingly significant slowdown. The decline in energy prices in particular had a dampening effect. Read our latest blog post to find out about the current inflation in the individual EU countries.
US labour market: strong employment growth
Surprisingly good figures came from the US labor market in the previous week. Despite the strong growth in employment, however, economic growth has recently been rather meager. Recession risks also remain at an uncomfortably high level.
Germany slides into technical recession: What does that mean?
The German economy slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter. What does this mean for the largest economy in the euro zone and what is a technical recession?
Meager Growth
Global growth is likely to cool significantly in the second quarter. At the same time, recession risks remain uncomfortably high, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer writes in his market commentary. The further course of negotiations on the US debt ceiling is also likely to cause tension on the market.
Markets in a wait-and-see mode
How much longer will the sideways trend on the stock markets last? Negative and positive factors balance each other out. One unresolved issue among many is the U.S. debt ceiling.
“A mild economic downturn has already been priced in by the market”
With the ERSTE REAL ASSETS mixed fund, investors can invest in real assets – and have indeed been doing so for two years now. On the occasion of the fund’s two-year anniversary, Philip Schifferegger, fund manager of ERSTE REAL ASSETS, is taking a look at the current market situation. He also explains why the fund is well equipped for both positive and negative market phases.
Central banks weigh risks
Most recently, central banks have signaled a somewhat less sharpish stance, as an effect of the rapid key rate hikes on the monetary environment has already become visible. However, recent economic data are dampening hopes for a rapid decline in inflation, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains in his market commentary.
Where is the recession?
The global economy grew strongly in the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, inflation remains too high, which is why central banks will continue to pursue a restrictive monetary policy. Although growth indicators are good to strong, there are therefore increased risks of recession.
Türkiye: President Erdogan Focuses on Economic Issues in Election Campaign
The hot phase of Turkey’s election campaign has begun, with parliamentary and presidential elections to be held simultaneously in the country on 14 May. In addition to the consequences of the earthquake disaster in early February, the Turkish citizens are also suffering from the massive inflation.
Funds in focus: World Fund Day 2023
On 19 April, the Austrian financial sector once again focuses on funds. And for good reason: funds provide easy access to the investment markets and are suitable for retirement provision and investment.
Inflation: How to protect your savings
Inflation continues to make life more expensive and does not stop at the savings of Austrians. More about the future outlook and possible protection strategies.
Banking problems support share prices
Since the banking problems in the US emerged in March, share prices have risen and expectations for future key interest rates have fallen significantly. However, inflation dynamics remain the most important factor for the markets, but unfortunately also one that is difficult to assess.
Game Changer
The current crisis of confidence continues to dominate market activity and has significantly increased uncertainty about the future development of economic indicators. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.
Conditionally positive economic news
Last week, positive economic data brought back some confidence. The global purchasing managers’ index, one of the most important survey-based economic reports, rose for the third time in a row. On the other hand, the latest inflation reports dampen hopes of a rapid decline in inflation without additional key rate hikes.
Risk inflation persistence
Inflation, which remains too high, continues to be the dominant macroeconomic issue. Hopes that inflation will fall as quickly as it has risen have been dampened, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains in his market commentary.
One Year Into the Ukraine War: Energy Price Shock and Inflation Still Noticeable, but Recovery on the Horizon
One year after the start of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine, the economic impact is felt around the globe. Naturally, the economic damage in Ukraine itself is devastating.
Calibration
Central banks and markets are in a calibration phase. The question is how many key rate hikes are needed to be able to confidently expect inflation to fall in the direction of 2%. Particular attention is therefore once again being paid to the US inflation data, which will be published today, Tuesday.
Positive January on the markets
On the stock markets, the first month of the year was positive. The recent softer tones of the central banks give rise to hopes that interest rate hikes are slowly coming to an end. Read more about the current market assessment in our Investment Update.
Party Crashers
Improved growth prospects for China and Europe and hopes of a sustained decline in inflation have supported the markets since the beginning of the year. However, sharp central bank rhetoric and weak growth indicators in the USA could prove to be spoilers.
Tug of war
At present, indicators on inflation and economic activity are competing to determine which of the two categories is more important for the financial market. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.