The turn of the year marked the end of a difficult and lossy year on the stock markets. After two years of Corona pandemic, 2022 was dominated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with many stock exchanges suffering double-digit losses.
![Stock Exchanges Carefully Optimistic for 2023 After Year of Losses Stock Exchanges Carefully Optimistic for 2023 After Year of Losses](https://blog.en.erste-am.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/20161206_PD16599.HR_-scaled-1-370x210.jpg)
The turn of the year marked the end of a difficult and lossy year on the stock markets. After two years of Corona pandemic, 2022 was dominated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with many stock exchanges suffering double-digit losses.
This week, the financial markets are once again in for an exciting ride: The European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve will decide to what extent interest rates will be raised again.
The rise in inflation in the USA was recently lower than expected, which led to a significantly brighter mood on the markets. However, a favourable inflation report is not yet a trend, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer emphasises.
More and more central banks are signalling a reduction in the pace at which they are raising key interest rates. However, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains, this does not necessarily mean that central banks are softening their focus on fighting inflation. Rather, a pause in the rate hike cycle would require a change in inflation dynamics.
Global equity markets have been under pressure for several months. The short recovery phase in the summer did not last long. What are the reasons for the bear market and when could be a good time to enter?
The mood among investors in the bond sector in emerging markets is mixed, as this year’s Emerging Markets Credit Conference held by US investment bank J.P. Morgan showed. Thomas Oposich, Senior Fund Manager, reports on the conference and his impressions.
The latest US labor market data suggest that the Fed will remain on its course of more restrictive monetary policy. “As long as job growth remains strong and unemployment and participation rates remain low, the Fed will maintain its basic restrictive stance”, writes Head Economist Gerhard Winzer in his market commentary.
The mood on the capital markets has deteriorated further over the last months. In a comprehensive market update, Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management at Erste Asset Management, explains why stamina is needed in the current situation.
The central banks want to achieve their long-term inflation target of 2%. In order to achieve this goal, they have raised key interest rates and are implementing a restrictive monetary policy. The higher key interest rates will weaken economic growth and also the labour market. Whether this can be achieved without a recession or whether there will be a “soft landing” is currently the subject of heated debate.
Inflation, the war in Ukraine and monetary policy are driving the markets and stoking fears of an impending recession. Initial economic indicators also point to gloomy growth prospects.