After the rapid and sharp interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023, the pendulum is now swinging in the opposite direction. After the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve will cut key interest rates for the first time this Wednesday, thus initiating a new cycle of interest rate cuts. What does all this mean for the economy and what conclusions can be drawn from it for investments?
With the surprising fall in inflation in the US, the scenario of a “soft landing” has become more likely. Meanwhile, the shocking attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the weekend will likely have an impact on the current election campaign.
The second half of 2024 has already kicked off on the financial markets – but what can investors expect from it? After expectations of interest rate cuts in the US were pushed back further and further in the first half of the year, the scope for the US Federal Reserve could increase again in the remainder of the year. The main focus is likely to be on upcoming political decisions – which could also lead to greater fluctuations.
Economic and political uncertainty is increasing. Nevertheless, inflation is falling in the USA and the eurozone. This increases the scope for central banks to react to a slowdown in economic growth by lowering key interest rates.
The European Central Bank is likely to cut its key interest rate tomorrow for the first time since the interest rate turnaround in 2022. But what comes next? Will the first cut herald a series of interest rate cuts or will the monetary guardians remain cautious? Chief economist Gerhard Winzer takes a look at the ECB’s possible future interest rate policy.
More and more indicators are pointing to good global growth. Even regions and sectors that had recently weakened are likely to return to growth. The soft landing after the sharp rise in inflation and the turnaround in interest rates could succeed. The decline in inflation is pausing at the same time, as yesterday’s US inflation data shows.
As the latest data shows, the US economy continues to grow strongly – despite the significant interest rate hikes in the past two years. What impact will this have on the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate policy and when could the first rate cuts follow?
After the price rally at the end of last year, the markets started 2024 with price losses. The ongoing positive correlation between bonds and equities is striking. Both asset classes have fallen equally recently, which makes diversification in a portfolio more difficult. But the year has only just begun. We therefore take a look at 10 key topics for 2024 that could be helpful when putting together a portfolio.
While equities have recently risen, yields on the bond market have weakened. The markets are being supported by increasing hopes of a “soft” landing for the economy. What are the chances of this scenario?
Inflation rose sharply in 2021 due to several supply shocks. Although there is a clear downward trend. However, the supply shocks could also have a structural effect on inflation. A look at the Phillips curve model can shed light on this.
