The stock markets look back on a strong first half of the year. In addition to the already familiar factors of inflation and key interest rates, the trend topic of artificial intelligence (AI) came into focus. In this interview, fund manager Tamás Menyhárt looks back on the past six months and tells us what has to happen for 2023 to end as happily as the first half of the year did.
The feared recession has so far failed to materialise and inflation is also falling. Nevertheless, the risks remain on the downside. What could be in store for the markets in the second half of the year?
Central banks remain on a restrictive course and hold out the prospect of further key interest rate hikes. Although there are some signs of a further decline in inflation, it is falling more slowly than expected. You can read where the journey could lead in the blog post.
Inflation data in Europe recently showed a surprisingly significant slowdown. The decline in energy prices in particular had a dampening effect. Read our latest blog post to find out about the current inflation in the individual EU countries.
Improved growth prospects for China and Europe and hopes of a sustained decline in inflation have supported the markets since the beginning of the year. However, sharp central bank rhetoric and weak growth indicators in the USA could prove to be spoilers.
More and more central banks are signalling a reduction in the pace at which they are raising key interest rates. However, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains, this does not necessarily mean that central banks are softening their focus on fighting inflation. Rather, a pause in the rate hike cycle would require a change in inflation dynamics.
The unexpectedly high inflation rates draw even wider circles. In view of the pessimistic mood, the question arises whether the negative environment is already being reflected by market prices.
The death of Queen Elizabeth II, her succession by Charles III and the appointment of the new prime minister, Liz Truss, mark a change of era in Great Britain. The government’s focus is on the fight against inflation and high energy prices.
Many economic indicators point to weakening economic momentum. Meanwhile, the US labor market continues to be very robust, which recently mitigated the immediate risks of recession in the United States.
Ahead of the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, a number of economic indicators point to increasing risks of growth or recession. There are also uncertainties regarding the further development of inflation and the effectiveness of monetary policy measures.