COP30: What remains of the World Climate Conference?

The UN Climate Change Conference “COP30” in Brazil came to an end at the weekend after tough negotiations. Ultimately, delegates from around 200 countries were able to agree on a final text after difficult negotiations. According to the declaration, rich countries want to increase their climate aid to poorer countries so that they can better cope with the effects of climate change. Specifically, tripling aid by 2035 was discussed. The final text also includes measures to accelerate climate protection and a review of trade barriers.

The delegates were unable to agree on a binding commitment to move away from fossil fuels. “We know that some of you had greater ambitions for some of the issues at hand,” admitted conference president Andre Correa do Lago during the closing plenary session. However, there are plans for a side agreement on fossil fuels outside the regular agreement.

The EU wanted to agree to this, even if the word “fossil” is only mentioned indirectly. “I want to be clear: we are not fighting fossil fuels. We are fighting emissions,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said recently, relativising the move away from fossil fuels. Oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia were particularly opposed to the establishment of such a roadmap for phasing out coal, oil and gas, nor did China want to go along with it, but decisions at the UN Climate Change Conference must be taken by consensus.

Data as of 26.11.2025

Brazil launches new fund to protect the rainforest

Brazil has also launched a new fund to protect the rainforest called TFFF, which is intended to financially reward tropical countries that protect their rainforests. The fund will generate interest income from capital contributions from government and private investors. This income will be paid out to all countries that protect their rainforests for conservation purposes. Norway has already pledged around USD 3bn (EUR 2.6bn) for forest protection at COP30. This is the largest contribution to the TFFF to date. French President Emmanuel Macron pledged EUR 500m to the fund.

However, the conference did not adopt a concrete “forest action plan” to curb deforestation. It merely reiterated an earlier decision to halt deforestation by 2030. In addition, the watering down of the EU deforestation regulation will do little to help protect forests.

Mixed reactions

India and other major emerging economies expressed satisfaction with the outcome of the global climate conference. A representative of India said on Saturday on behalf of the so-called BASIC countries, which include Brazil, China and South Africa, that a “significant” agreement had been reached in the difficult negotiations. He praised the “outstanding efforts” of the Brazilian COP presidency.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledged that the outcome of COP30 was not satisfactory for everyone (c) APA-Images / AFP / PABLO PORCIUNCULA

EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said that although the EU would have liked to see “more ambition” in the outcome of the conference, it did not oppose the result. However, diplomats from the EU circle spoke of “an unsatisfactory outcome”. “It was not a step backwards, it was not a step forwards, but a step to the side,” observers of the process told the APA. The term “minimal compromise” was often used.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres gave a mixed assessment. The conference “did not achieve everything that is necessary,” Guterres said on Saturday. He acknowledged that “many may be disappointed” with the results, including indigenous peoples and young people. “The gap between where we are and what science demands remains dangerously large,” the UN Secretary-General emphasised.

Fossil fuel production and climate targets continue to diverge

Domestic researchers drew a mixed conclusion after the conclusion of the World Climate Conference. Initial reactions were positive that the climate target of the Paris Agreement was still included in the final text. In the 2015 climate agreement, the international community committed to limiting global warming to well below two degrees, but preferably 1.5 degrees, compared to the pre-industrial era.

However, according to a study published in September, there is still a wide gap between the commitments in the Paris Climate Agreement and the plans of countries to use fossil fuels. There remains “a disconnect between climate ambitions and what countries are actually planning in terms of fossil fuel production,” said study co-author Derik Broekhoff of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), summarising research conducted by more than 50 international researchers. The study states that the planned production of coal, oil and gas by 2030 currently exceeds the amount compatible with the 1.5-degree target by more than 120 per cent. Even the two-degree target will be exceeded by 77 per cent with the current plans.

“Naturally, as with every COP since the Paris Climate Summit, expectations were higher than the results ultimately achieved,” comments Walter Hatak, Head of Responsible Investments at Erste Asset Management, on the decisions made at the World Climate Conference. But despite these unfulfilled expectations, global warming has been reduced from over 3 degrees to now below 2.5 degrees in recent years, while economic growth has remained positive. “Even if the 1.5-degree target seems increasingly unrealistic, the Paris target of below 2 degrees is still achievable with the appropriate efforts.” According to Hatak, every tenth of a degree counts, especially because of the tipping points in the climate that could trigger negative consequences.

Renewable energies still on the rise

While no global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels has been agreed upon, the expansion of renewable energies is continuing at an unchanged pace. According to Hatak, China in particular has invested heavily in the expansion of renewable energy infrastructure in recent years. “China has made these investments not for ideological reasons but primarily for economic reasons, while the US under Trump is taking the opposite path and assuming a special global role,” he comments.

Another milestone was reached in the first half of this year: for the first time, energy production from renewables has grown faster than global demand, displacing fossil fuels. “There is therefore every reason to remain positive about the future and look forward to the next COP with high expectations,” says Hatak, looking positively to the future.

 

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