The advance of private space companies continues, most notably in the US, where the industry is hoping for a new boom under Donald Trump’s presidency. The business is currently dominated by Elon Musk’s company SpaceX; but other companies are hoping to get a larger piece of the pie. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin in particular is currently trying to compete with SpaceX. The space technology company’s new high-performance heavy-lift rocket New Glenn was successfully launched on its first test flight in January. Blue Origin intends to use the rocket to take market share away from SpaceX.
Note: The companies listed in this article have been selected as examples and do not constitute an investment recommendation.
Meanwhile, SpaceX is working on developing a significantly larger rocket system, but recently had to report a setback. The largest rocket system ever built in the history of space travel, Starship, was unable to complete a seventh test flight as planned, as the upper stage of Starship was lost shortly after launch. However, the lower stage touched back down on Earth as intended and was recovered.
Jeff Bezos (3rd from right) and Elon Musk (1st from right) are competing with their companies for dominance in private space aviation. Image source: JULIA DEMAREE NIKHINSON / AFP / picturedesk.com
Aside from the space technology companies owned by the two prominent US billionaires, numerous other companies are also working on the commercial development of space, from large aerospace corporations such as Lockheed Martin and Airbus to numerous small start-ups. Economists therefore expect the industry to continue to grow rapidly.
According to an industry report published by the World Economic Forum in 2024, the volume of the space business is expected to grow from USD 330bn in 2023 to USD 525bn in 2030 and USD 755bn in 2035. This would correspond to an annual growth rate of around 7 per cent. These figures only include the space industry in the strict sense, such as rocket manufacturers and satellite operators. Adding to this the industries that are only possible at all through space technologies such as GPRS services, the study predicts a growth from USD 630bn in 2023 to USD1.8tn in 2035.
Note: Prognoses and past performance are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Trump’s plans for mars fuel industry hopes of more state funding
In addition, newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump’s term of office could provide further growth impetus for the industry. Trump already announced a manned Mars mission in his inauguration speech, promising, “We will pursue our Manifest Destiny into the stars, aunching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars.”
“The space industry will flourish under the new administration,” Rahul Rughani, chief engineer at US space start-up Arkisys, recently told Handelsblatt. The entire industry is now hoping “that the US government will provide more money for the development of new technologies, for scientific experiments and for the establishment of start-ups.”
Experts naturally see Trump confidant Elon Musk’s SpaceX group in pole position for new government contracts. However, other large corporations and start-ups are also likely to benefit from Trump’s plans. Shares of the GE Aerospace conglomerate, which is also involved in the rocket business, have gained 17 per cent since the start of the year and have roughly doubled in price over the last 12 months. With a market capitalisation of around USD 210bn, the engine manufacturer is currently the most valuable of the major listed aerospace companies.
Shares of Planet Labs have gained almost a third since the start of the year, with the share price more than doubling in the space of a year. The share price of rocket manufacturer Rocket Lab has risen by around 15 per cent since the start of the year, increasing as much as sixfold year-on-year.
It remains to be seen whether Europe’s aerospace industry can profit from the protectionist US President Trump’s plans. However, experts also see potential benefits for Europe, for instance through the booming demand for small satellites for commercial applications. Dual-use satellites, which can be used for military and civilian purposes, are also seen as having great market potential.
US billionaire Elon Musk’s space company SpaceX could benefit from Trump’s space plans. Pictured here is the first launch of the Falcon Heavy heavy-lift launch vehicle in February 2018. Image source: unsplash/spaceX
EU wants to establish Starlink competitor with its own Iris satellite network
The EU’s plans for its own satellite network could also provide a boost for the industry. In December, the EU Commission awarded the contract for 290 satellites to a consortium of several European manufacturers. Starting in 2030, Iris will compete with Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network. The contract for the next twelve years goes to the Spacerise consortium, which brings together the manufacturers SES from Luxembourg, Eutelsat from France and Hispasat from Spain. The group’s suppliers include aircraft manufacturer Airbus and network providers Telekom and Orange, with the satellite programme estimated to cost a total of EUR 10.6bn.
In view of the strong competition from SpaceX, signs of consolidation are emerging in the European satellite industry. Airbus, France’s Thales and Italy’s Leonardo want to establish a joint venture for space travel in order to better compete against Musk’s company, people familiar with the plans told the news agency Reuters in December. Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani confirmed to the agency that the MBDA missile joint venture’s structure, in which Airbus, British BAE Systems and Leonardo are involved, is the model. Airbus and Thales had previously announced massive savings for the space industry.
Toyota wants more involvement in the space industry with investments in rocket manufacturers
Finally, Japan could also get more involved in the space business in the future. At the CES trade fair in Las Vegas in January, Toyota chairman Akio Toyoda explained that the company is also interested in rocket technology. “Because the future of mobility shouldn’t be limited to just Earth, or just one car company,” he said with an obvious dig at Elon Musk, heads not only SpaceX but also Tesla, the market leader in EVs. As a first step, Toyota is investing in the Japanese rocket company Interstellar Technologies.