Erste Asset Management

Investing – a long term story

Investing – a long term story
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We have seen some extraordinary years speaking about equity and multi asset performance. Interest rates were low, volatility – representing the average daily price changes – was comparably low.

Especially after the strong fall in market prices we have seen during the “Corona Shock” with the first “Lock Down” and almost closing down of global economies, we have seen a strong market recovery and investors were benefiting from the positive sentiment and rising prices covering the seen market draw-down within 6 months, ending up in positive territory today!

Why was the “Corona Shock” driving the market that intensively…

When “Corona” appeared, it was something totally new. Nobody knew about it. Nobody knew how to handle it, how it will affect himself. We were all protecting ourselves by hiding at home.

Market participants reacting quite similarly to new information they can not judge immediately. Taking the example of “Corona”, also on markets the first reaction was “protecting” the invested money by quickly selling or hedging risky assets (equities, bonds with low ratings, …) – assets that tend to overreact during corrections.

After the market participants got a clearer picture of the situation, learning about all the measures taken by central banks and governments to support the economy, they got more confidence and were able to better judge the situation. Market participants started to re-position adding risky assets, starting the recovery of asset prices that led to the excellent performance seen.

“We have seen some extraordinary years speaking about equity and multi asset performance. Interest rates were low, volatility – representing the average daily price changes – was comparably low.”

Christian Gaier

© Photo: Erste AM

… and what is the difference to today?

The current market situation is driven be the following factors:

  1. The year-end effect – a technical factor

We argue investing is “long term” (starting from 5 years) putting money to work in a diversified portfolio (a fund with a selection of multiple single titles). Due to year end the period mid of November to end of January is traditionally used by investment management firms to review and adopt the investment strategy for the money they are responsible for. This leads to changes in allocations globally and effecting the markets ending up in “Christmas Rallies / Corrections” or “Start of the year Rallies / Corrections”. We also review the strategies for our clients on a regular basis and we are not getting nervous in the short run by market movements triggered by these re-positionings.

2. New “uncertainties” that need to be judged

The world is continuously changing, and geopolitics got more into focus. Uncertainties concerning Russia and Ukraine – including potential sanctions – as well as volatile China/US relations increase uncertainties.
COVID is losing importance for the markets, but nevertheless Omikron variant – especially potential lock-downs – were reducing market confidence a bit as this could again effect supply chains and dampen the current growth outlook.   
Global central banks are finally at the stage to prepare markets for slowly rising rates. Bringing bond markets (especially those which were yielding negative) back into the play, into the focus of investors.

The question on the table: Are you a speculator or are you an investor?

As speculator, you might ask “What will happen tomorrow, in 5 days, in 2 weeks, … ?” You are thinking short term only, not about the long-term potential. You might wonder “Might I buy the assets cheaper or have a negative valuation on my asset?”. You might even think about to turn you negative valuation into a realized loss or not, losing the long term potential of an done investment you have seen when buying it.

As investor you will evaluate the situation for yourself. What were the arguments why you wanted to invest into the asset for a period longer than 5 years? What potential did you see at that point and do you still believe in it? Maybe it is an investment story of a changing world behind?
Markets had and will always have phases searching for direction, making investors doubt. Historically investing proved to be the long-term story – rewarding investors that did not got nervous in the short run.

Legal note:
Prognoses are no reliable indicator for future performance.

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Legal disclaimer

This document is an advertisement. Unless indicated otherwise, source: Erste Asset Management GmbH. The language of communication of the sales offices is German and the languages of communication of the Management Company also include English.

The prospectus for UCITS funds (including any amendments) is prepared and published in accordance with the provisions of the InvFG 2011 as amended. Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG is prepared for the alternative investment funds (AIF) administered by Erste Asset Management GmbH pursuant to the provisions of the AIFMG in conjunction with the InvFG 2011.

The currently valid versions of the prospectus, the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG, and the key information document can be found on the website www.erste-am.com under “Mandatory publications” and can be obtained free of charge by interested investors at the offices of the Management Company and at the offices of the depositary bank. The exact date of the most recent publication of the prospectus, the languages in which the key information document is available, and any other locations where the documents can be obtained are indicated on the website www.erste-am.com. A summary of the investor rights is available in German and English on the website www.erste-am.com/investor-rights and can also be obtained from the Management Company.

The Management Company can decide to suspend the provisions it has taken for the sale of unit certificates in other countries in accordance with the regulatory requirements.

Note: You are about to purchase a product that may be difficult to understand. We recommend that you read the indicated fund documents before making an investment decision. In addition to the locations listed above, you can obtain these documents free of charge at the offices of the referring Sparkassen bank and the offices of Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG. You can also access these documents electronically at www.erste-am.com.

N.B.: The performance scenarios listed in the key information document are based on a calculation method that is specified in an EU regulation. The future market development cannot be accurately predicted. The depicted performance scenarios merely present potential earnings, but are based on the earnings in the recent past. The actual earnings may be lower than indicated. Our analyses and conclusions are general in nature and do not take into account the individual characteristics of our investors in terms of earnings, taxation, experience and knowledge, investment objective, financial position, capacity for loss, and risk tolerance.

Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of a fund. Investments in securities entail risks in addition to the opportunities presented here. The value of units and their earnings can rise and fall. Changes in exchange rates can also have a positive or negative effect on the value of an investment. For this reason, you may receive less than your originally invested amount when you redeem your units. Persons who are interested in purchasing units in investment funds are advised to read the current fund prospectus(es) and the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG, especially the risk notices they contain, before making an investment decision. If the fund currency is different than the investor’s home currency, changes in the relevant exchange rate can positively or negatively influence the value of the investment and the amount of the costs associated with the fund in the home currency.

We are not permitted to directly or indirectly offer, sell, transfer, or deliver this financial product to natural or legal persons whose place of residence or domicile is located in a country where this is legally prohibited. In this case, we may not provide any product information, either.

Please consult the corresponding information in the fund prospectus and the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG for restrictions on the sale of the fund to American or Russian citizens.

It is expressly noted that this communication does not provide any investment recommendations, but only expresses our current market assessment. Thus, this communication is not a substitute for investment advice, does not take into account the legal regulations aimed at promoting the independence of financial analyses, and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial analyses.

This document does not represent a sales activity of the Management Company and therefore may not be construed as an offer for the purchase or sale of financial or investment instruments.

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Please also read the “Information about us and our securities services” published by your bank.

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