The 4th BBVA Latin American Local Markets Conference in London gave me the chance to speak in detail with some local Latin American representatives. In the following, I would like to share some of the insights I gained from these conversations and the narratives that may affect 2018.
Guest author: Jenny Teng, Senior Fund Manager
Jenny Teng is senior fund manager in the equity team of Erste AM. Born in China she is employed since 2008 at ERSTE-SPARINVEST and responsible for the Asian equity markets.
Certainly, the National Congress of the Communist Party of China held every five years in Beijing is an important political event, but this year’s Party Congress was a milestone. It marked that a new era has begun in China. President Xi Jinping cemented his power further as China’s paramount leader, a leader, who might rule the country on the coming decade, a leader, who has high ambitions.
Gabriela Tinti was interviewed by Dieter Kerschbaum, Erste AM Communications.
The global economy is experiencing significant growth, and the emerging markets have felt the increased economic growth rates as well. Even in problematic countries such as Brazil or Russia, the situation has been picking up due to the increased oil price.
Impressions of a trip to Beijing
Author: Thomas Oposich, Senior Fundmanager Fixed Income funds
Driving through Beijing you will see megalomania without limits – in houses, traffic, and people. A trip in a tuk-tuk, which looks like a motorcycle on three wheels, allows you a short glance into the past. It is at these moments that the rift between rich and poor becomes obvious.
Irrespective of the opposites in the social strata, the eyes are looking towards the future of the metropolis, home to millions. Led by the government, plans are to take the country to new strength. The control exercised especially in the area of infrastructure and with respect to property prices is enormous.
Venezuela is in a difficult situation. Hyperinflation describes the economic environment best. For 2017, the IMF estimates a consumer price inflation of 650% y/y, and for 2018, the estimate is 2,300%.
Guest Author: Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager
The following points reflect my impressions at the presentations that I attended at the IMF-meetings in Washington from 12 to 15 October 2017.
Asia’s cities are growing and growing, presenting the urban infrastructure with great challenges. Thanks to technical progress, the relevance of environmentally friendly transport solutions is on the rise. Investors can benefit from this trend, as Gabriela Tinti points out in an op-ed article for the magazine “Global Investor”.
Economic growth has increased significantly on a global scale and is broadly supported. According to our preliminary estimate, global GDP recorded a growth rate of 3.7% from Q1 to Q2 (annualised). While the developed economies have presumably grown by 2.7%, the emerging economies posted a growth rate of 5.2%. In this article, we would like to take a closer look at the emerging markets on the basis of classic economic indicators.
China has been increasingly opening up to the global market. Last year the Renminbi was taken into the currency basket of the International Monetary Fund in October 2016. Now, another step towards liberalisation has followed. China has cleared A-shares for international trade via trading platforms.
Last Thursday, incriminating video and audio tapes emerged that linked current President Michel Temer to bribery. The accusations have thrown Brazil into a deep political crisis, and the capital markets have lost massively.