Erste Asset Management - Blog

Posts on: Capital Markets/Macro-Economics
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Gerhard Winzer am 20th April 2018

Bleaker sentiment on the financial markets

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The environment on the financial markets has become a bit bleaker. Growth rates of industrial output and the survey-based indicators for economic growth are falling, while the trade conflict between the USA and China and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has caused the risk for global growth to increase further.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 11th April 2018

Judging Managers’ Character

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Mikuláš Splítek

Author: Mikuláš Splítek, Fund Manager

 

It is a wonderful situation for a stock picker when a factor is important, knowable, and overlooked. Assessing managers’ character is clearly important.Read more

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Gerold Permoser am 10th April 2018

Financial Markets Monitor April: upside-down scenario

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On 3 April, we held our monthly Investment Committee meeting. Only three weeks after the previous one – three weeks that were tightly packed with issues, as we can see in the performance data of the most important asset classes. Equities and high-yield bonds have lost value, whereas Eurozone government bonds and emerging markets bonds have recorded gains. An upside-down scenario, compared to previous months.

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Gerhard Winzer am 26th March 2018

US Fed tightens its monetary policy

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The most important central bank of the world, the US Fed, increased the Fed funds rate on 21 March and also published projections for economic key indicators. Even though this does not sound like much, the implications for the markets are significant.

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Gerold Permoser am 19th March 2018

Financial Markets Monitor: we have stepped up the risk of our asset allocation by a notch

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On 14 March our Investment Committee met, and as always, we started out on a discussion of our risk stance, i.e. our risk assessment. From my point of view, four findings of the discussion are worth bringing up here:

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Gerhard Winzer am 16th March 2018

Protectionism: Risk of a trade war with the US?

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The announcement by the US President, Donald Trump, to levy import tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%) has made waves. Can the favourable economic environment of boom, low inflation, and gradual reduction of the supportive monetary policy be toppled?

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 05th March 2018

Quo Vadis Italia? – The 2018 general election in Italy and its importance to the economy

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The economic environment for Italy remains challenging. The fundamental problem is the low economic growth. Although the composition of the future government is still unclear, the party programs imply a persistent reform deadlock.

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Gerhard Winzer am 27th February 2018

Ten new determining factors for the capital market

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The economic environment for the capital markets is subject to change as we speak. About one and a half years ago, the global economy shifted from recovery to boom, which was very advantageous for the markets. The features were strong, broadly based economic growth, low inflation, very supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and limited price fluctuations on the markets. We have now started leaving this best of all worlds (“Goldilocks scenario”) in more and more categories.

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Gerold Permoser am 22nd February 2018

Market Monitor: After the market correction, confidence outweighs

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„If you’re going through hell, keep going!”
Sir Winston Spencer Churchill

 

The year 2018 had started on such a promising note – is what we all were thinking. But at the beginning of February, the market taught us a lesson. As a result, the discussions at our first Investment Committee of the year at the beginning of February were interesting ones.

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Gerold Permoser am 19th February 2018

How does inflation work? – Part 2: Inflation drivers

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There are many factors that may affect inflation. Also, the weights of certain factors may vary across countries. Take the development of the exchange rate, for example.

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