After the ballots were counted on 16 April 2017, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported that “Yes” had won by securing 51.4% of the votes, which was later also confirmed by the Electoral Commission. Serious concerns were raised by the OSCE. It is also important to note that the referendum took place during a “state of emergency”. That is to say, in a highly repressive climate in which the President and the government controlled the media, jailed critical journalists and leaders of pro-Kurdish parliamentary opposition, and arbitrarily detained and prosecuted the President’s opponents. The result of the referendum has paved the way for the most controversial changes that Turkey has faced in its history.
The spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund was held in Washington from 20 to 23 April. This event was the reason for an investor conference that I attended in order to get an idea of the status quo of the global economy as well as of risks and opportunities.
Marine Le Pen has been losing in the polls, a fact probably due to the improved economic environment in France.
A “Yes” to Erdogan’s planned constitutional amendment in Turkey would constitute a double-edged sword for investors: the planned presidential system could mean a short-term relief for the markets and for the economy. However, in the long run, this scenario harbours big risks. That being said, a “No” would not help investors either.
Author: Anton HauserSenior Fundmanager Emerging Market Bonds Three and a half years after introduction, the Czech National Bank decided today to remove its 27 CZK/EUR currency floor. Many investors were expecting this decision. Indeed, this trade is currently one of the most popular ones among investors. As expected, the Czech koruna appreciated slightly against […]
At this year’s IT trade fair CEBIT, the focus was on robots that support humans in their daily routine; on drones that can be used for difficult jobs in the field such as oil rigs; driverless electro busses that are steered by sensors and accelerate and stop autonomously; and various other technological innovations that are no fiction but have in fact already entered our daily lives. Of what relevance are they for the economy, for companies, for consumers – and for investors?
In 2016, election results surprised us twice: both the Yes vote for Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the USA were unexpected, but did happen. This prompts the question of whether the European Union (EU) is in peril because of the French elections in April.
Autor: Christian Gaier, Head of Fixed Income Rates, Sovereigns & FX, Erste AM I would like to share my impressions from my latest investor conference in London that I attended on 16th January 2017. The conference was organized by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), a leading global financial group with a strong franchise in 35 […]
Author: Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager Emerging Markets Bonds Brazil tactically overweighted at the moment Most of the fundamental economic data are currently not good. In 2016, the country is in recession; for 2017, a minor growth rate of +0.7% is expected. The nominal budget deficit of 2016 is about -10%, with a primary deficit […]
Author: Dieter Kerschbaum, Communications Specialist Austria Interest rates are at record lows in the euro area, as a result of which investors can feel a great deal of pressure to achieve acceptable yields. This situation shifts their focus back to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Central and Eastern Europe currently comes with […]