The international stock exchanges recorded a rather dismal start into the new year. The reasons cited most frequently were China and the declining oil price. A weaker Chinese economy will definitely register also on an international scale due to the mere size of the country. While a weaker oil price is beneficial to consumers, it does cause significant levels of stress in the energy sector as well as among banks that provide credit to the sector.
A factor that has hitherto been more or less disregarded is the general earnings situation of listed companies. Therefore we want to take a closer look at this topic in this article. Without earnings growth, there can be no sustainable rise in share prices.
Earnings cycle has peaked out
In the developed markets equity universe the earnings cycle peaked out in February 2015. Since then, earnings have been on a slow but steady decline.
This development is not limited to the energy sector. Even non-cyclical consumer goods have shown a weaker tendency for two years now. Only healthcare and the technology sector have so far been able to buck the trend.
Current earnings trend advises caution
The long-term chart covering the past 40 years (blue line) shows the cyclical nature of the earnings development. The red line indicates the earnings trend over the entire period. Earnings have increased since the 1970s by an average of 5.6%. The green line illustrates the earnings trend over the past ten years, which is significantly flatter. In this less extensive analysis, earnings have only increased by an average of 1.9%, with five MSCI sectors (energy, commodities, financials, telecoms, and utilities) recording no growth at all over that period.
We can see that whenever earnings have fallen clearly below the trend line, a recession ensued, or indeed a recession was already occurring. In the past 40 years this has been the case four (!) times.
The current earnings development definitely advises caution: as long as the negative trend prevails, the international stock exchanges will be finding it difficult to rise.
The earnings trend in the emerging market has been negative for a while
In the emerging markets the earnings situation has been negative for a while, which explains the weak performance of this equity class. While earnings recovered after the financial crisis, they peaked out back in 2011 and have not reached that level again since then; in fact, earnings have been on the decline since that time. This can also be explained by the composition of the equity indices. The index weighting of sectors displaying relative strength such as the technology sector and healthcare is low to non-existent. On the other hand, energy, commodities, and financials command very strong weightings.
Falling earnings are a negative indicator for equities. As long as no stabilisation or trend reversal is in sight, the pressure on the markets will not let up.
As explained above, earnings have increased by an average of 5.6% in the past. At +6.3%, the MSCI World index has recorded a slightly better performance. This is due to the fact that the price-earnings ratio has widened from 13.7x to 18.0x, which can be explained by the decline in yields and which therefore cannot be repeated. By adding dividends, we get a total historical performance of 9.1% p.a.
New reality: lower total performance expected
The average earnings increase of 5.6% is pretty much in line with global, nominal GDP growth over the past 40 years. Assuming a generally weaker growth rate and lower rates of inflation in the future, company earnings should increase more slowly as well. This means we will hardly see a repeat-performance of past gains. With regard to the extent, we can only speculate: perhaps in the future an expected total performance (price increases and dividends) of five to six percent will be the new reality.
This document is an advertisement. All data is sourced from ERSTE-SPARINVEST Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H., Erste Asset Management GmbH and ERSTE Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H. unless indicated otherwise. Our languages of communication are German and English.
The prospectus for UCITS (including any amendments) is published in Amtsblatt zur Wiener Zeitung in accordance with the provisions of the InvFG 2011 in the currently amended version. Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG is prepared for the alternative investment funds (AIF) administered by ERSTE-SPARINVEST Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H., Erste Asset Management GmbH and for ERSTE Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H. pursuant to the provisions of the AIFMG in connection with the InvFG 2011 and regarding ERSTE Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H. published in Amtsblatt zur Wiener Zeitung or at the web site www.erste-am.com or www.ersteimmobilien.at .
The fund prospectus, Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG and the key investor document/KID can be viewed in their latest versions at the web site www.erste-am.com or www.ersteimmobilien.at or obtained in their latest versions free of charge from the domicile of the management company and the domicile of the custodian bank. The exact date of the most recent publication of the fund prospectus, the languages in which the key investor document/KID is available, and any additional locations where the documents can be obtained can be viewed on the web site www.erste-am.com or www.ersteimmobilien.at .
This document serves as additional information for our investors and is based on the knowledge of the staff responsible for preparing it at the time of preparation. Our analyses and conclusions are general in nature and do not take into account the individual needs of our investors in terms of earnings, taxation and risk appetite. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of a fund.