Erste Asset Management - Blog

Posts on: CEE/Emerging Markets
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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 11th May 2017

My impressions from IMF meeting in Washington: Emerging markets “alive and kicking”

Jose Luis Magana / AP / picturedesk.com
Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager Emerging Markets Bonds

Author: Felix Dornaus
Senior Fund Manager

 

The spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund was held in Washington from 20th to 23rd April. This event was the reason for an investor conference that I attended in order to get an idea of the status quo of the global economy as well as of risks and opportunities.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 12th April 2017

What the Turkish referendum means for the capital markets

(c) Fotolia

Amalia RipflAuthor: Amalia Ripfl
Senior Fund Manager

A “Yes” to Erdogan’s planned constitutional amendment in Turkey would constitute a double-edged sword for investors: the planned presidential system could mean a short-term relief for the markets and for the economy. However, in the long run, this scenario harbours big risks. That being said, a “No” would not help investors either.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 06th April 2017

Czech National Bank removes currency floor

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Author: Anton Hauser
Senior Fundmanager Emerging Market Bonds

 

Three and a half years after introduction, the Czech National Bank decided today to remove its 27 CZK/EUR currency floor. Many investors were expecting this decision. Indeed, this trade is currently one of the most popular ones among investors. As expected, the Czech koruna appreciated slightly against the Euro. In the short term the currency will remain volatile, as a lot of speculative money is involved. In the long run I expect that the Czech koruna will continue to appreciate given the strong fundamentals of the Czech economy.
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Gabriela Tinti am 03rd March 2017

Equity performance: focus on emerging markets

The stock exchanges in the emerging economies and their performances have fallen short of expectations in recent years. Speculations about the weakening economy of China, the decline of commodity prices, and an appreciating US dollar have had a detrimental effect on emerging markets. However, the trust of investors in these markets has been making a comeback since 2016. In spite of Donald Trump’s election victory and the fear of a US policy of protectionism, the emerging economies are currently outperforming the developed ones.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 31st January 2017

High yields and a potential turnaround make LATAM bonds an interesting investment

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Autor:
Christian Gaier, Head of Fixed Income Rates, Sovereigns & FX, Erste AM

I would like to share my impressions from my latest investor conference in London that I attended on 16th January 2017. The conference was organized by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), a leading global financial group with a strong franchise in 35 countries and a leading position in the Spanish market and in Mexico. For us, a perfect partner when it comes to research on countries and companies in Latin America (LATAM).
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Paul Severin am 30th December 2016

2016 – a capital markets year in review

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2016 was full of surprises on the stock exchanges. At the beginning of the year, economic concerns in China, the second-biggest economy in the world, triggered drastic losses on the stock exchanges. Over the year, cautious optimism gradually returned: the oil price recovered, and the stock exchanges in the emerging markets rebounded. Brexit and Donald Trump failed to affect the sentiment of market players. Instead, the global equity barometer rose particularly in the second half of the year by a large degree (see the chart below). With the help of cyclical companies and financials, which often command heavy weightings, especially US-stock markets set new highs. The development of European and Asian exchanges was relatively disappointing.

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Sevda Sarp am 28th December 2016

Turkey Outlook 2017 – Light at the end of the tunnel

Ulrike Gruber / www.art-of-zeug.at

Turkey faced a lot of difficulties in 2016 – both on the economic and political side. On the economic front, the first half of the year was a recovery period where most of the macro data showed improvement, political turmoil had diminished and equity market was pretty much on hold while the market participants had positive views in general. A new Prime Minister and a new Governor for the Central Bank was appointed, who started his term with a positive tone with respect to Monetary Policy. On the other hand, in the second half of the year Turkey had to cope with a lot of turmoil.

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Paul Severin am 20th October 2016

“The trust in emerging markets is returning”

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ESPA STOCK GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS: Three questions for Gabriela Tinti, Senior Fund Manager

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Paul Severin am 16th August 2016

Emerging markets bonds: “Responsibility and growth are not mutually exclusive”

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The global, sustainable corporate bond fund ERSTE RESPONSIBLE BOND EMERGING CORPORATE has clearly passed the threshold of EUR 100mn of assets under management. A perfect occasion to take stock. Christian Schön, member of the board of directors of Erste Asset Management, explains what role sustainable investments play in emerging markets, especially in the corporate bond segment.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 10th August 2016

Brazil: Hope for change stimulates bonds

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Author: Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager Emerging Markets Bonds

Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager Emerging Markets Bonds
Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager Emerging Markets Bonds
Brazil tactically overweighted at the moment

Most of the fundamental economic data are currently not good. In 2016, the country is in recession; for 2017, a minor growth rate of +0.7% is expected. The nominal budget deficit of 2016 is about -10%, with a primary deficit of -2.7%. This comes as a surprise, given that investors had been used to primary surpluses from Brazil. The current account is also slightly in deficit. The only silver lining is the low foreign government debt of less than 20% of GDP, accompanied by high foreign exchange reserves. We therefore do not expect any issues for bondholders with regard to the payments they are due.

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