Erste Asset Management - Blog

Posts on: Capital Markets/Macro-Economics
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Gerold Permoser am 24th July 2017

Quo Vadis, Federal Reserve? – Part 1

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The US central bank has embarked on a cycle of interest rate hikes. The question is: by how much will the interest rates increase still, and at what point will it reach a level detrimental to the economy, where equities should be regrouped into asset classes less sensitive to the economic cycle?

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Harald Egger am 20th July 2017

Style management in practice: part 1

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A clear sense of style is not only important in fashion, but more and more so in equity management as well. But what does “style” mean in equity management? Do stylistic preferences change over time, like in fashion? If so, what triggers those changes? Questions upon questions, but before we go into detail in part 2 of this series, let us first clarify what we mean by style(s):

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Gerold Permoser am 12th July 2017

Which factors drive equity markets?

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It is almost impossible to speak with fund managers and not address the economy or monetary policy. Why is that so? This blog entry will try to answer the question on the basis of data from the US equity market from 1950 onwards.

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Gerhard Winzer am 10th July 2017

Monetary policy of central banks is tightening up

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Volatility has increased on the markets. The main reason for this has not occurred often in the past years: statements by the central bankers according to which the extremely expansive monetary policy will be reeled in. Are we going through a trend reversal?

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Gerold Permoser am 04th July 2017

Germany: is the economy about to face a hot summer?

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The IFO business climate index calculated by the Munich-based IFO Institute is regarded as the most important German economic indicator. At 115.1, the value released for June last week was the highest since the launch in January 1991. It was also clearly above the value that had been expected by the financial analysts on average. The signs for substantial economic growth in Germany seem favourable.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 30th June 2017

Quo vadis banking union? Italian banking crisis

Stefan Rößler, Fund manager Fixed Income Erste Asset Management

Author: Stefan Rößler
Fund manager Fixed Income

The real estate bubble started to burst in the USA roughly ten years ago, tossing the global economy into a severe recession mainly on the back of contagion effects in the financial sector.

In order to avoid a bad situation from getting worse, many financial institutes had to be bailed out by governments and thus ultimately by the taxpayers. One of the learning points of the financial crisis  is to prevent taxpayer-funded bank bail outs in the future.

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Gerhard Winzer am 06th June 2017

The global economy based on the Goldilocks principle

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The global economy is growing moderately, inflation is low, and the monetary policy is loose. This environment supports many asset classes from bonds to equities. The political uncertainty has been absorbed rather well so far too. Will this situation last?

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Paul Severin am 22nd May 2017

Bribery accusations put shock to Brazilian capital markets

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Last Thursday, incriminating video and audio tapes emerged that linked current President Michel Temer to bribery. The accusations have thrown Brazil into a deep political crisis, and the capital markets have lost massively.

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Gerhard Winzer am 08th May 2017

Macron wins French elections

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The elections are over. The next President of France will be Emmanuel Macron. This strengthens the camp of the liberal EU supporters. What does this result mean for the capital markets?

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Gerhard Winzer am 02nd May 2017

ECB takes another tiny step

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Economic growth in the Eurozone has embarked on a clear upward trend. At the same time, the fear of falling wages and prices has disappeared for now. The worries over a possible break-up of the European Union have also eased. Against this backdrop, the ECB President Draghi issued a slightly more optimistic growth forecast yet again on 27 April at the press conference of the European Central Bank. This is another tiny step indicating a possible reduction of the monetary support in the medium term.

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