Erste Asset Management - Blog

Posts on: Capital Markets/Macro-Economics
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Gerhard Winzer am 06th June 2017

The global economy based on the Goldilocks principle

(c) iStock

The global economy is growing moderately, inflation is low, and the monetary policy is loose. This environment supports many asset classes from bonds to equities. The political uncertainty has been absorbed rather well so far too. Will this situation last?

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Paul Severin am 22nd May 2017

Bribery accusations put shock to Brazilian capital markets

(c) Andre Penner / AP / picturedesk.com

Last Thursday, incriminating video and audio tapes emerged that linked current President Michel Temer to bribery. The accusations have thrown Brazil into a deep political crisis, and the capital markets have lost massively.

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Gerhard Winzer am 08th May 2017

Macron wins French elections

(c) iStock

The elections are over. The next President of France will be Emmanuel Macron. This strengthens the camp of the liberal EU supporters. What does this result mean for the capital markets?

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Gerhard Winzer am 02nd May 2017

ECB takes another tiny step

(c) iStock

Economic growth in the Eurozone has embarked on a clear upward trend. At the same time, the fear of falling wages and prices has disappeared for now. The worries over a possible break-up of the European Union have also eased. Against this backdrop, the ECB President Draghi issued a slightly more optimistic growth forecast yet again on 27 April at the press conference of the European Central Bank. This is another tiny step indicating a possible reduction of the monetary support in the medium term.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 19th April 2017

France votes on 23 April: what is the current position of Marine Le Pen?

(c) iStock

Author: Stephanie Clam Martinic
Senior Fund Manager Multi Asset Management

Marine Le Pen has been losing in the polls, a fact probably due to the improved economic environment in France.

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Gerhard Winzer am 10th April 2017

Reflation trade comes to an end

(c) iStock

The markets were consolidating in March. The global equity index, the spreads for credit risk, and the yields of risk-free government bonds have been going sideways. Before that, the risky asset classes had recorded remarkable price increases, while risk-free bonds had incurred losses. Has the so-called reflation trade, i.e. the positioning towards rising nominal economic growth, come to an end?
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Gerhard Winzer am 22nd March 2017

A masterpiece

(c) iStock Photo

The US central bank Fed increased the Fed funds rate last Wednesday. The risky asset markets reacted to the move with an increase. At the same time, the US dollar depreciated. How can that be explained?
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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 17th March 2017

What effect does the French election have on the bond markets?

(iStock)

Author: Stephanie Clam Martinic
Senior Fund Manager Multi Asset Management

In 2016, election results surprised us twice: both the Yes vote for Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the USA were unexpected, but did happen. This prompts the question of whether the European Union (EU) is in peril because of the French elections in April.
Will Marine Le Pen win the presidential election in France and then lead the country – one of the original founders of the European Union – out of said union?

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Gerhard Winzer am 23rd February 2017

Fragile bull market

(c) iStock

It is as difficult to remain invested in a bull market as it is to leave a bear market. After all, investors are risk-averse. Taking into account the four most important categories for the assessment of the attractiveness of asset classes – valuation, liquidity, positioning, and growth – one would conclude that the most important driving factor for the markets builds on the last one.

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Gerhard Winzer am 27th January 2017

Higher growth vs. increased political uncertainty

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The first weeks of the new year have already picked up from where the trends that started in 2016 and the hypotheses for 2017 left off: higher growth, normalisation of inflation, increased uncertainty with regard to the effects of Trumponomics, and a gradual end of the loose monetary policy.

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