Erste Asset Management - Blog

Posts on: Capital Markets/Macro-Economics
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Gerold Permoser am 14th December 2017

Market Monitor: risky markets have come far

(c) Fotolia

Earlier this week, we convened the last Investment Committee of 2017. The general risk appetite of the team has not changed vis-à-vis the previous month (from 78.85 percent to 79 percent on our 0 – 100 percent scale). The team continues to see the future optimistically, with a resulting “risk on” stance.

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Gerold Permoser am 07th December 2017

Capital markets outlook for 2018: Will the party hold on?

(c) Erste Asset Management

2017 is drawing to an end, and the bottom line is positive. The outcome is significantly better than we had expected. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy has never expanded more quickly and especially concertedly than in 2017. Also, inflation has surprised on the downside, falling short yet again of the expectations held by central banks and analysts.

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Gerold Permoser am 09th November 2017

Market Monitor: Optimism on the rise

(c) Fotolia

This week we held our monthly Investment Committee meeting. Although only little has changed with regard to the overall economic picture, we were having a few interesting discussions that we would now like to share with you.

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Gerhard Winzer am 30th October 2017

An impressive stunt

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The Council of the European Central Bank pulled an impressive stunt at the monetary policy meeting on 26 October. ECB President Mario Draghi announced to reduce the extremely supportive monetary policy in the near future while sounding very cautious (dovish) with regard to the process at the same time.

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Gerhard Winzer am 09th October 2017

Disruption from Catalonia

Kietzmann Björn / Action Press / picturedesk.com

The events in Catalonia are a new disruptive political element on the capital markets. The basic question is whether the generally favourable environment for risky assets is sustainable.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 05th October 2017

Renmimbi – a managed currency

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Guest author: Jenny Teng, Senior Fund Manager

 

Jenny Teng is senior fund manager in the equity team of Erste AM. Born in China she is employed since 2008 at ERSTE-SPARINVEST and responsible for the Asian equity markets.

 

 

 

Long enough we have heard about the depreciation of Chinese currency Renmimbi (RMB), but this year RMB has showed rather unusual movements.

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Gerold Permoser am 02nd October 2017

Market Monitor: positive for risky asset classes

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Once a month the Investment Committee of Erste Asset Management convenes in order to discuss the medium-term market outlook. We are going to start a new blog, where we will report on what drives our investment professionals and what risks they see.

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Gerhard Winzer am 25th September 2017

US central bank will start reducing bond holdings in October

(c) iStock

The most important central bank in the world, the Federal Reserve of the USA, has announced a historic decision as a result of its FOMC meeting on 20 September: the central bank balance sheet, hugely inflated in the wake of the bond purchase programme, will be gradually reduced from October onwards. Generally speaking this is a good sign, as the decision can be seen as further testimony to the normalisation of the economic environment.

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Gerhard Winzer am 20th September 2017

Economic scenarios 2018

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Q3 is drawing to its end. Traditionally, this heralds the development of a strategy for the next year, an important part of which is the creation of scenarios. On the basis of the status quo, we have drawn up three further different scenarios in this blog entry.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 05th September 2017

US debt ceiling keeping the financial markets on their toes

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Author: Felix Dornaus, Senior Fundmanager

The Trump administration should be keeping the financial markets on their toes in the coming weeks. Yet again, the issue is the government debt which will soon reach its statutory maximum.

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