Erste Asset Management - Blog

Gerhard Winzer

Gerhard Winzer has worked at Erste Asset Management since March 2008. Up until March 2009, he was Senior Fund Manager in Fixed Income Asset Allocation; he has been Head Economist since April 2009.

He holds a degree from a polytechnical college and studied economics and business at Vienna University with a special focus on financial markets. He holds a CFA charter and participated from 2001 to 2003 in the doctoral programme for finance at the Center for Central European Financial Markets in Vienna.

From July 1997 to June 2007, he worked in research at CAIB, Bank Austria Creditanstalt, and UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking. His last position was as Executive Director for Fixed Income / FX Research and Strategy. He was responsible for research on asset allocation at Raiffeisen Zentralbank (RZB) in Vienna from July 2007 to February 2008.

Gerhard Winzers Posts
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Gerhard Winzer am 10th November 2017

Hyperinflation in Venezuela

FEDERICO PARRA / AFP / picturedesk.com

Venezuela is in a difficult situation. Hyperinflation describes the economic environment best. For 2017, the IMF estimates a consumer price inflation of 650% y/y, and for 2018, the estimate is 2,300%.

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Gerhard Winzer am 30th October 2017

An impressive stunt

(c) iStock

The Council of the European Central Bank pulled an impressive stunt at the monetary policy meeting on 26 October. ECB President Mario Draghi announced to reduce the extremely supportive monetary policy in the near future while sounding very cautious (dovish) with regard to the process at the same time.

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Gerhard Winzer am 09th October 2017

Disruption from Catalonia

Kietzmann Björn / Action Press / picturedesk.com

The events in Catalonia are a new disruptive political element on the capital markets. The basic question is whether the generally favourable environment for risky assets is sustainable.

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Gerhard Winzer am 25th September 2017

US central bank will start reducing bond holdings in October

(c) iStock

The most important central bank in the world, the Federal Reserve of the USA, has announced a historic decision as a result of its FOMC meeting on 20 September: the central bank balance sheet, hugely inflated in the wake of the bond purchase programme, will be gradually reduced from October onwards. Generally speaking this is a good sign, as the decision can be seen as further testimony to the normalisation of the economic environment.

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Gerhard Winzer am 20th September 2017

Economic scenarios 2018

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Q3 is drawing to its end. Traditionally, this heralds the development of a strategy for the next year, an important part of which is the creation of scenarios. On the basis of the status quo, we have drawn up three further different scenarios in this blog entry.

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Gerhard Winzer am 25th August 2017

Growth picking up in the emerging economies

© Fotolia.de

Economic growth has increased significantly on a global scale and is broadly supported. According to our preliminary estimate, global GDP recorded a growth rate of 3.7% from Q1 to Q2 (annualised). While the developed economies have presumably grown by 2.7%, the emerging economies posted a growth rate of 5.2%. In this article, we would like to take a closer look at the emerging markets on the basis of classic economic indicators.

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Gerhard Winzer am 10th August 2017

Solid Growth

(c) iStock

Some ten years after the outbreak of the Great Recession, global economic growth is positive and broadly based, inflation is low in the developed economies and falling in important emerging economies, and monetary policies are very supportive, cautious, and predictable. At the same time, company earnings growth has increased significantly, and the volatilities of many asset prices are low. This environment is generally positive for risky asset classes.

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Gerhard Winzer am 10th July 2017

Monetary policy of central banks is tightening up

(c) iStock

Volatility has increased on the markets. The main reason for this has not occurred often in the past years: statements by the central bankers according to which the extremely expansive monetary policy will be reeled in. Are we going through a trend reversal?

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Gerhard Winzer am 23rd June 2017

Increase in inflation has come to an end for now

(c) iStock

Two developments are prominently noticeable on the markets at the moment: on the one hand, the indicators of real economic growth suggest a stable real economic growth rate of about 3%. On the other hand, we have seen global consumer price inflation decline since the beginning of the year. The reflation phase, i.e. the general increase in inflation in the second half of 2016, seems to be over (for now).

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Gerhard Winzer am 06th June 2017

The global economy based on the Goldilocks principle

(c) iStock

The global economy is growing moderately, inflation is low, and the monetary policy is loose. This environment supports many asset classes from bonds to equities. The political uncertainty has been absorbed rather well so far too. Will this situation last?

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