Erste Asset Management - Blog

Gerold Permoser

Gerold Permoser has been Chief Investment Officer at Erste Asset Management since early April 2013. He is responsible for all asset management activities and investment strategies for all investment funds held by the Erste Asset Management Group in Austria, Germany, Croatia, Romania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Before joining the company, he served this function at Macquarie Investment Management Austria KAG. Permoser has gathered experience in investments since 1997.

He began his career as a fixed-income analyst at the Creditanstalt in Vienna. He moved to asset management at Innovest KAG in 2000. He made significant contributions in the investment field there and advanced to CIO (director of asset allocation and research). Gerold Permoser studied at the University of Innsbruck and is a CFA charter holder. He offers training at the University of Vienna and at various post-graduate institutions for analysts and portfolio managers (i.e., at VÖIG, the Association of Austrian Investment Fund Companies).

Gerold Permosers Posts
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Gerold Permoser am 14th December 2017

Market Monitor: risky markets have come far

(c) Fotolia

Earlier this week, we convened the last Investment Committee of 2017. The general risk appetite of the team has not changed vis-à-vis the previous month (from 78.85 percent to 79 percent on our 0 – 100 percent scale). The team continues to see the future optimistically, with a resulting “risk on” stance.

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Gerold Permoser am 07th December 2017

Capital markets outlook for 2018: Will the party hold on?

(c) Erste Asset Management

2017 is drawing to an end, and the bottom line is positive. The outcome is significantly better than we had expected. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy has never expanded more quickly and especially concertedly than in 2017. Also, inflation has surprised on the downside, falling short yet again of the expectations held by central banks and analysts.

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Gerold Permoser am 09th November 2017

Market Monitor: Optimism on the rise

(c) Fotolia

This week we held our monthly Investment Committee meeting. Although only little has changed with regard to the overall economic picture, we were having a few interesting discussions that we would now like to share with you.

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Gerold Permoser am 02nd October 2017

Market Monitor: positive for risky asset classes

(c) Fotolia

Once a month the Investment Committee of Erste Asset Management convenes in order to discuss the medium-term market outlook. We are going to start a new blog, where we will report on what drives our investment professionals and what risks they see.

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Gerold Permoser am 12th September 2017

Sustainability? Possibly more important than you might think!

(c) iStock

I have recently read an interesting research report by one of our independent research partners, Gavekal Research. Gavekal Research is based in Hong Kong, and one of its strengths is its deep knowledge of the Asian market. The piece titled “Good Governance, Poor Performance” discusses good corporate governance. This is a central pillar of traditional as well as sustainable investment.

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Gerold Permoser am 01st August 2017

Quo Vadis, Federal Reserve? – Part 3

(c) iStock

Making sense of it all

I will be upfront about it: to me, the Taylor rule is still a helpful tool to assess the future monetary policy of the US central bank. However, it should not be used as blueprint without thinking it through. Instead, it should be seen as heuristic tool that helps structure one’s analysis.

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Gerold Permoser am 27th July 2017

Quo Vadis, Federal Reserve? – Part 2

(c) iStock

Taylor Rule – precise formula, vague Inputs

Since 2008, the key-lending rates in the USA seem to have been significantly too low as measured by the Taylor rule. With some economists blaming Alan Greenspan’s loose monetary policy as partially responsible for the financial crisis of 2008, the question is whether we are in for a déjà-vu.

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Gerold Permoser am 24th July 2017

Quo Vadis, Federal Reserve? – Part 1

(c) iStock

The US central bank has embarked on a cycle of interest rate hikes. The question is: by how much will the interest rates increase still, and at what point will it reach a level detrimental to the economy, where equities should be regrouped into asset classes less sensitive to the economic cycle?

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Gerold Permoser am 12th July 2017

Which factors drive equity markets?

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It is almost impossible to speak with fund managers and not address the economy or monetary policy. Why is that so? This blog entry will try to answer the question on the basis of data from the US equity market from 1950 onwards.

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Gerold Permoser am 04th July 2017

Germany: is the economy about to face a hot summer?

(c) iStock

The IFO business climate index calculated by the Munich-based IFO Institute is regarded as the most important German economic indicator. At 115.1, the value released for June last week was the highest since the launch in January 1991. It was also clearly above the value that had been expected by the financial analysts on average. The signs for substantial economic growth in Germany seem favourable.

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