Erste Asset Management - Blog

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The guest author is used for persons who do not publish blog posts on a regular basis. They could also be external persons (not from Erste Asset Management).
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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 06th April 2017

Czech National Bank removes currency floor

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Author: Anton Hauser
Senior Fundmanager Emerging Market Bonds

 

Three and a half years after introduction, the Czech National Bank decided today to remove its 27 CZK/EUR currency floor. Many investors were expecting this decision. Indeed, this trade is currently one of the most popular ones among investors. As expected, the Czech koruna appreciated slightly against the Euro. In the short term the currency will remain volatile, as a lot of speculative money is involved. In the long run I expect that the Czech koruna will continue to appreciate given the strong fundamentals of the Czech economy.
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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 28th March 2017

Megatrends in the IT sector

Author: Bernhard Ruttenstorfer
Senior Fundmanager Equities

At this year’s IT trade fair CEBIT, the focus was on robots that support humans in their daily routine; on drones that can be used for difficult jobs in the field such as oil rigs; driverless electro busses that are steered by sensors and accelerate and stop autonomously; and various other technological innovations that are no fiction but have in fact already entered our daily lives. Of what relevance are they for the economy, for companies, for consumers – and for investors?

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 17th March 2017

What effect does the French election have on the bond markets?

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Author: Stephanie Clam Martinic
Senior Fund Manager Multi Asset Management

In 2016, election results surprised us twice: both the Yes vote for Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the USA were unexpected, but did happen. This prompts the question of whether the European Union (EU) is in peril because of the French elections in April.
Will Marine Le Pen win the presidential election in France and then lead the country – one of the original founders of the European Union – out of said union?

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 31st January 2017

High yields and a potential turnaround make LATAM bonds an interesting investment

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Autor:
Christian Gaier, Head of Fixed Income Rates, Sovereigns & FX, Erste AM

I would like to share my impressions from my latest investor conference in London that I attended on 16th January 2017. The conference was organized by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), a leading global financial group with a strong franchise in 35 countries and a leading position in the Spanish market and in Mexico. For us, a perfect partner when it comes to research on countries and companies in Latin America (LATAM).
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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 10th August 2016

Brazil: Hope for change stimulates bonds

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Author: Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager Emerging Markets Bonds

Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager Emerging Markets Bonds
Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager Emerging Markets Bonds
Brazil tactically overweighted at the moment

Most of the fundamental economic data are currently not good. In 2016, the country is in recession; for 2017, a minor growth rate of +0.7% is expected. The nominal budget deficit of 2016 is about -10%, with a primary deficit of -2.7%. This comes as a surprise, given that investors had been used to primary surpluses from Brazil. The current account is also slightly in deficit. The only silver lining is the low foreign government debt of less than 20% of GDP, accompanied by high foreign exchange reserves. We therefore do not expect any issues for bondholders with regard to the payments they are due.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 23rd June 2016

Central and Eastern Europe poised for comeback

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Author: Dieter Kerschbaum, Communications Specialist Austria

Interest rates are at record lows in the euro area, as a result of which investors can feel a great deal of pressure to achieve acceptable yields. This situation shifts their focus back to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Central and Eastern Europe currently comes with more positive aspects than one might think. There are factors at play that might drive investor attention to this region in the foreseeable future. The risks are largely of a political nature, as the tensions with Western Europe with respect to migration, the Ukraine conflict, and the re-emergence of nationalistic economic policies suggest.

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 27th April 2016

Bond markets suffering from decline in liquidity

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Author: Martina Groll, Senior Fund Manager

The bond purchase programme of the European Central Bank has caused a drought on the bond markets. As a result, investors now have to take into account the liquidity risk on top of the interest rate risk and the default risk.

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