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Gerhard Winzer am 08th May 2017

Macron wins French elections

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The elections are over. The next President of France will be Emmanuel Macron. This strengthens the camp of the liberal EU supporters. What does this result mean for the capital markets?

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Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 17th March 2017

What effect does the French election have on the bond markets?

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Author: Stephanie Clam Martinic
Senior Fund Manager Multi Asset Management

In 2016, election results surprised us twice: both the Yes vote for Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the USA were unexpected, but did happen. This prompts the question of whether the European Union (EU) is in peril because of the French elections in April.
Will Marine Le Pen win the presidential election in France and then lead the country – one of the original founders of the European Union – out of said union?

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Gerhard Winzer am 10th November 2016

The impact of Donald Trump’s election victory

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After a long campaign, the results of the US presidential election are in: Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. In addition, the Republican Party has retained its majority in Congress. What are the repercussions for the global economy and the financial markets?

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Harald Egger am 19th July 2016

Japanese stock exchanges rally after Prime Minister wins elections

The Japanese equity market has been among the weakest ones in the year to date. At -15% (as of 12 July 2016; source: Bloomberg), the Nikkei index is one of the worst performers. For euro investors, the bottom line is not as abysmal: adjusting the loss for the development of the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the euro, the performance improves to -4% (Bloomberg). In spite of the negative sign, the net result still outperforms European equities.

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Harald Egger am 20th May 2016

What ratios are relevant in the selection of equity sectors?

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Shares (equities) are classified, among other criteria, according to sectors, e.g. healthcare, consumer goods, energy etc. Shareholders pursue different approaches when it comes to the classification process. In this report we follow the methodology of MSCI, a US financial service provider that offers international equity indices and risk analyses.
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Sevda Sarp am 02nd November 2015

Turkish Elections Update

With the current outcome, the uncertainties in Turkish economies are off the table. AKP (governing party Justice and Development) will now have 316 seats in the parliament. This is enough to form a single party government, still, it falls short of constitutional majority – the most market friendly outcome. There will be a positive sentiment as Turkey goes back to business. After a period of deepened political uncertainties, the election outcome leads to some relief on Turkish capital markets.

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Sevda Sarp am 30th October 2015

Turkish Elections Round Two

Ⓒ Ulrike Gruber

Turkish early elections to be held on 1 November, 2015; and once more, the market is waiting for a positive outcome. Neither the country nor the market has more tolerance to absorb any further political uncertainty; however, the election outcome may not be too different from the results back in June 2015. Nevertheless, this time Turkey is closer to a coalition government.

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Sevda Sarp am 05th June 2015

Could the outcome of Turkish parliamentary elections lead to increased volatility?

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The upcoming parliamentary elections on Sunday in Turkey could force Erdogan to postpone his plan for a new constitution and could lead to new political leaders in the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economics. This would trigger an increase in uncertainty and consequently a higher degree of volatility for the Turkish Lira and the Istanbul stock Exchange.
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Gerhard Winzer am 08th January 2018

Ten economic hypotheses for 2018

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The current environment is very positive for the capital markets: strong growth, low inflation, supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and low volatilities, i.e. fluctuations. Also, the numerous risks have not had a significantly negative impact on prices. However, the phase of rising prices started as early as March 2009. This environment implies that any change in the relevant parameters such as growth, inflation, and monetary policy would be tantamount to deterioration, given that improvement is not possible anymore. The most important question asked by investors at the outset of 2018 is therefore whether this positive environment is still here to stay.

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Paul Severin am 04th January 2018

Best of Erste AM Investment Blog 2017

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2017 was a positive year on the global capital markets (see blog from 2 January 2018). We have analysed which blogs were the most popular ones last year.

 

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