Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 16th August 2017
Author: Walter Hatak, Research Analyst
Did VW, Audi, Porsche, Daimler, and BMW collude to form a cartel? Did they deliberately try to suspend competition? The media seem to have discovered a violation of anti-trust law, and their research suggests a link between the diesel emissions scandal and the agreements reached in joint task groups.
Paul Severin am 14th August 2017
Central Banks startet to reduce their expansive monetary stance. The confidence to achieve the inflation goals improved, given the strong economic growth data. In the US the start of the tapering program is expected in autumn, the probability for a further increase in the Fed funds rate in December was lately at 40%. The ECB will start the discussion regarding a possible tapering also in autumn.
Gerhard Winzer am 10th August 2017 (c) iStock
Some ten years after the outbreak of the Great Recession, global economic growth is positive and broadly based, inflation is low in the developed economies and falling in important emerging economies, and monetary policies are very supportive, cautious, and predictable. At the same time, company earnings growth has increased significantly, and the volatilities of many asset prices are low. This environment is generally positive for risky asset classes.
Gerold Permoser am 01st August 2017 (c) iStock
Making sense of it all
I will be upfront about it: to me, the Taylor rule is still a helpful tool to assess the future monetary policy of the US central bank. However, it should not be used as blueprint without thinking it through. Instead, it should be seen as heuristic tool that helps structure one’s analysis.