The real estate bubble started to burst in the USA roughly ten years ago, tossing the global economy into a severe recession mainly on the back of contagion effects in the financial sector.
In order to avoid a bad situation from getting worse, many financial institutes had to be bailed out by governments and thus ultimately by the taxpayers. One of the learning points of the financial crisis is to prevent taxpayer-funded bank bail outs in the future.
Imagine a fairy that grants you three wishes. What would you wish for? The answer would be very easy for me. I would just like to know if the economy is caught up in a recession of has embarked on an expansionary phase a year from now. And whether the central bank will be pursuing an expansive or restrictive policy. If I got these two wishes granted, I would even forego the third one. Or, as a good fund manager, I might engage in risk management and save up for bad times. Growth and monetary policy are of significant relevance to the return of almost all asset classes.
Shares (equities) and equity funds – the same or not?
Only a small minority of Austrians invest directly or indirectly (via equity funds) in shares. Is it the fear of losses or the lack of knowledge about this asset class that make investors shy away from it? In this blog entry, I would like to give you an overview of the features of shares and equity funds.
Two developments are prominently noticeable on the markets at the moment: on the one hand, the indicators of real economic growth suggest a stable real economic growth rate of about 3%. On the other hand, we have seen global consumer price inflation decline since the beginning of the year. The reflation phase, i.e. the general increase in inflation in the second half of 2016, seems to be over (for now).
Author: Christian Süttinger Senior Fund Manager Multi Asset Management
In the USA, gradually rising interest rates have already become reality. In Europe and in another large economic area, i.e. Japan, the subdued economic development has prevented interest rates from increasing to date. The European Central Bank manages interest rates in such a way as to support the economic upswing and the cohesion of the Eurozone.
The global economy is growing moderately, inflation is low, and the monetary policy is loose. This environment supports many asset classes from bonds to equities. The political uncertainty has been absorbed rather well so far too. Will this situation last?
We have talked to the ESG analyst team of Erste AM about Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord in a roundtable discussion: Dominik Benedikt, Alexander Osojnik, Stefanie Schock, and Walter Hatak.