CURRENT
POLL

Equity markets 2018

Will the equity markets remain friendly in the upcoming year?

71.43%
Y
28.57%
N
http://blog.en.erste-am.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2015/08/Jakarta_iStock_000034119210Medium-890x390.jpg

Emerging countries under pressure

Photo: iStock

Commodity prices have fallen drastically since the beginning of July. The commodity price index provided by Bloomberg has fallen by nearly 12%. In fact, many commodity prices are locked in a bear market. The index is currently almost 50% below the level of the beginning of 2011.

Over the same period the currencies of emerging countries have depreciated by about 35% vis-à-vis the US dollar, and equities have fallen by about 26%.

In line with these developments, real economic growth in the emerging countries has weakened significantly. The growth estimate for Q2 has been cut to only 2.5% q/q. Net of the Chinese economic growth, the remaining emerging economies (accounting for about two thirds) have even shrunk on aggregate. Industrial production has stagnated in the first half of the year, and both exports and export prices have fallen.

The most recent leading indicators also suggest that there is no end in sight for the downward trend. For example, the purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector, as compiled by Markit, continued to fall in July. While at 49.1 it is currently only slightly below the threshold of 50, which indicates neither decline nor increase, the trend is headed downwards.

In our portfolios we take this development into account and have reduced emerging markets corporate bonds to zero.

Did you like this article?

0.00 Average Rating (0% Result) - 0 Votes
Legal disclaimer

This document is an advertisement. All data is sourced from ERSTE-SPARINVEST Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H., Erste Asset Management GmbH and ERSTE Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H. unless indicated otherwise. Our languages of communication are German and English.

The prospectus for UCITS (including any amendments) is published in Amtsblatt zur Wiener Zeitung in accordance with the provisions of the InvFG 2011 in the currently amended version. The simplified prospectus is prepared by ERSTE Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H. and published in Amtsblatt zur Wiener Zeitung in accordance with the provisions of the ImmoInvFG 2003 as amended. Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG is prepared for the alternative investment funds (AIF) administered by ERSTE-SPARINVEST Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H., Erste Asset Management GmbH and for ERSTE Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H. pursuant to the provisions of the AIFMG in connection with the InvFG 2011.

The fund prospectus, Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG, the simplified prospectus, and the key investor document/KID can be viewed in their latest versions at the web site www.erste-am.com or www.ersteimmobilien.at or obtained in their latest versions free of charge from the domicile of the management company and the domicile of the custodian bank. The exact date of the most recent publication of the fund prospectus or simplified prospectus, the languages in which the key investor document/KID is available, and any additional locations where the documents can be obtained can be viewed on the web site www.erste-am.com or www.ersteimmobilien.at.

This document serves as additional information for our investors and is based on the knowledge of the staff responsible for preparing it at the time of preparation. Our analyses and conclusions are general in nature and do not take into account the individual needs of our investors in terms of earnings, taxation and risk appetite. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of a fund.

Gerhard Winzer

Gerhard Winzer has worked at Erste Asset Management since March 2008. Up until March 2009, he was Senior Fund Manager in Fixed Income Asset Allocation; he has been Head Economist since April 2009.

He holds a degree from a polytechnical college and studied economics and business at Vienna ...

More

Add a comment

Subscribe to Blog by E-Mail